Bitcoin: Dollar Secular Decline Fuels Supercycle

Bitcoin stands to benefit from a potential secular US dollar downtrend if the AI trade unwinds, according to macro strategist André Dragosch.

Foreign holders like China and Japan have already pulled capital from US Treasuries, yet equities held firm on semis strength. A consolidation in the AI industry impact could redirect flows into hard assets, challenging the diminishing returns hypothesis that has capped prior cycles since Bitcoin genesis in 2009.

Technical Confluence on 4h Chart

Bitcoin trades at $78313.54 inside a bullish trend with price above the EMA50 at $74921.85 and EMA200 at $68336.86. Momentum shows RSI(14) at 55.81 while MACD registers a death cross at 1156.97. With price testing upper Bollinger resistance at $80600.44 and neutral RSI, a healthy retracement toward the 50-EMA support at $74921.85 appears probable before continuation. This setup supports BTC price prediction models favoring higher cycle returns and reduces crypto market crash risk in the near term.