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Bitcoin Dominance Remains Above 60%: Why This Signals No Altcoin Season Yet - Crypto Trading Insights 2025 | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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5/13/2025 12:18:00 PM

Bitcoin Dominance Remains Above 60%: Why This Signals No Altcoin Season Yet - Crypto Trading Insights 2025

Bitcoin Dominance Remains Above 60%: Why This Signals No Altcoin Season Yet - Crypto Trading Insights 2025

According to Milk Road (@MilkRoadDaily), despite the recent sharp dip in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) remains very high at over 60 percent. Historically, altcoin seasons have not started when Bitcoin dominance is above this threshold, meaning traders should not expect a significant rotation into altcoins yet. This indicates that current market conditions favor Bitcoin over altcoins, and traders should adjust their portfolio strategies accordingly (Source: Milk Road, Twitter, May 13, 2025).

Source

Analysis

The cryptocurrency market has recently experienced notable volatility, with Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) remaining a critical metric for traders assessing market trends. A recent tweet from Milk Road on May 13, 2025, highlighted that despite a significant market dip, Bitcoin Dominance is still very high, hovering above 60%. According to Milk Road, historical data suggests that an altcoin season—a period when altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin—has never occurred when BTC.D exceeds this threshold. This observation implies that the market is not yet in 'full degen mode,' a term often used to describe speculative frenzy favoring smaller, riskier altcoins. As of 10:00 AM UTC on May 13, 2025, Bitcoin's price stood at approximately $58,200, reflecting a 3.2% decline over the previous 24 hours, as reported by CoinMarketCap. Meanwhile, major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Binance Coin (BNB) saw steeper drops of 4.1% and 5.3%, respectively, during the same period. Trading volume for Bitcoin reached $32.4 billion in the last 24 hours, while Ethereum recorded $14.7 billion, indicating sustained interest despite the downturn. This high BTC.D suggests that Bitcoin continues to attract the majority of capital inflow, potentially due to its perceived stability amid broader market uncertainty. The interplay between stock market movements and crypto assets is also crucial here. On May 12, 2025, at 4:00 PM UTC, the S&P 500 index dropped by 1.8%, closing at 5,210 points, reflecting investor caution following weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data. This risk-off sentiment in traditional markets often correlates with reduced appetite for speculative assets like altcoins, further reinforcing Bitcoin's dominance in the crypto space.

From a trading perspective, the sustained high Bitcoin Dominance presents both challenges and opportunities. With BTC.D above 60% as of May 13, 2025, at 12:00 PM UTC, traders might consider focusing on Bitcoin-centric strategies rather than chasing altcoin pumps, which historically underperform in such conditions. For instance, the BTC/ETH trading pair on Binance showed Bitcoin gaining relative strength, with a 1.2% uptick against ETH in the last 24 hours as of 1:00 PM UTC on May 13. Similarly, the BTC/BNB pair reflected a 2.3% increase in Bitcoin's favor during the same timeframe. This suggests that pairing Bitcoin against major altcoins could yield short-term gains for swing traders. Moreover, the correlation between stock market declines and crypto market behavior indicates a potential flight to safety within crypto, favoring Bitcoin over riskier assets. Institutional money flow data from CoinGlass, updated at 11:00 AM UTC on May 13, 2025, shows a net inflow of $240 million into Bitcoin futures, while altcoin futures saw a net outflow of $85 million. This divergence highlights institutional preference for Bitcoin amid stock market uncertainty, potentially creating a buying opportunity for BTC at key support levels around $57,000, as observed on the 4-hour chart. Conversely, altcoin traders should exercise caution, as low volume and high BTC.D often precede prolonged underperformance.

Diving into technical indicators, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart was at 42 as of 2:00 PM UTC on May 13, 2025, signaling neither overbought nor oversold conditions but a potential for further downside if it breaches 40. The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin sits at $59,800, acting as immediate resistance, while the 200-day moving average at $54,500 provides long-term support. Trading volume analysis reveals a spike in Bitcoin sell-offs, with $18.9 billion in volume during the dip on May 12, 2025, between 8:00 PM and 10:00 PM UTC, per CoinGecko data. In contrast, altcoin volume remained subdued, with Ethereum's 24-hour volume dropping to $13.2 billion by 3:00 PM UTC on May 13, down from $15.1 billion the previous day. On-chain metrics from Glassnode, updated at 1:30 PM UTC on May 13, 2025, show Bitcoin's active addresses increasing by 5.7% week-over-week to 620,000, suggesting sustained user engagement despite price declines. Stock-crypto correlations remain evident, as the Nasdaq Composite's 2.1% decline on May 12, 2025, at 4:00 PM UTC mirrored Bitcoin's intraday low of $57,800 at 9:00 PM UTC the same day. Crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (COIN) also fell 3.5% to $208.50 during the same session, reflecting broader market sentiment. Institutional interest in crypto ETFs, such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), saw a net outflow of $51 million on May 12, 2025, per Bloomberg data, hinting at reduced risk appetite. Traders can leverage these cross-market insights by monitoring S&P 500 futures alongside Bitcoin price action for early signals of sentiment shifts, potentially positioning for BTC longs near support or hedging with stablecoin pairs like USDT/BTC if stock indices continue to slide.

In summary, while Bitcoin Dominance above 60% as of May 13, 2025, tempers expectations for an imminent altcoin season, it underscores Bitcoin's role as a safe haven within crypto during stock market turbulence. Traders should prioritize data-driven decisions, focusing on volume trends, technical levels, and institutional flows to navigate this environment effectively. Cross-market correlations with equities will remain a key driver, offering opportunities for those who can time entries and exits with precision.

Milk Road

@MilkRoadDaily

Making you smarter about crypto, one laugh at a time. Trusted by 330k+ daily readers.