Bitcoin: Dowd Sees NASDAQ Convergence Trade

Edward Dowd sees the Bitcoin and NASDAQ correlation collapse since October last year as the setup for a convergence trade, with the math pointing to NASDAQ underperformance rather than any BTC moonshot.

The former BlackRock manager notes the pair fell from near 1.0 to 0.6 after Bitcoin posted its historic selloff while equities kept climbing, and he expects fundamentals in the AI bubble to force NASDAQ lower to close the gap before any policy response ignites risk assets.

BTC price prediction now hinges on that sequence: NASDAQ cracks first, recession follows, then aggressive Fed printing lifts Bitcoin in the depths of the selloff.

Price action on the 4h chart sits at $77275.95 inside the Bollinger band with upper resistance at $79267.47 and lower support at $76812.37; the bearish EMA50 at $77528.27 caps upside while the EMA200 at $71800.91 anchors the longer-term floor, and the MACD death cross at -288.1 combined with neutral RSI at 42.37 signals exhaustion that favors a test of the 50-EMA before any continuation.