Bitcoin: Dragosch Sees Supercycle From Dollar Downtrend

Bitcoin faces a potential supercycle as André Dragosch calls for a secular dollar downtrend paired with commodities strength that could deliver higher cycle returns than prior bulls.

The thesis rests on capital flows away from US Treasuries by holders like China and Japan, with the last dollar bastion in equities tied to the AI trade. Dragosch expects that trade to unwind, opening the door for hard assets after no such secular commodity bull since BTC genesis in 2009. This setup directly challenges the diminishing returns narrative and supports stronger BTC price prediction outcomes.

Price action on the 4h chart shows BTC at $78500 inside Bollinger bands with upper resistance at $80421.78 and lower support at $76615.97. With price testing upper Bollinger resistance while RSI sits neutral at 57.14 and MACD prints a death cross at 1063.46, a healthy retracement to the 50-EMA support at $75068.53 appears probable before continuation toward the 200-EMA at $68438.93. The AI industry impact on equity flows remains the key macro trigger to watch.