Bitcoin Price Resilience Amid Geopolitical Turmoil

Bitcoin demonstrated notable stability during a broader market sell-off triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East, as Israeli airstrikes on Iran's nuclear and missile sites fueled global risk aversion. According to market data, Bitcoin declined by 2.42% over 24 hours to $104,889.07 as of Thursday, while the broader cryptocurrency index fell 6.04%. This contrasted sharply with traditional safe havens, with gold futures rising 1.25% to $3,445.00 per ounce and U.S. crude oil surging over 6% to $73 per barrel. The conflict intensified after Iran launched drones toward Israel, heightening fears of retaliation, with Polymarket traders assigning a 91% probability of Iranian countermeasures this month, as noted by market sentiment indicators.

Detailed Asset Movements and Market Sentiment

Ethereum faced steeper declines, dropping 8.81% to $2,523.28 in the same period, while Solana plummeted 9.5% to $143.91, erasing earlier gains driven by ETF optimism. Solana had rallied on reports that the SEC requested issuers to update S-1 filings for potential ETFs, accelerating approval timelines, as highlighted by Wintermute trader Jake Ostrovskis. Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart estimated a 90% chance of Solana ETF approval by year-end, but geopolitical risks overshadowed this positivity. Global equities also suffered, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.89%, U.S. index futures falling 1.16%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 declining 1.37%, reflecting widespread risk-off behavior. Month-to-date inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $939 million, with Ethereum funds seeing $811 million, per Farside Investors data, yet investor focus shifted abruptly to Middle East uncertainties.

Derivatives and Liquidation Dynamics

Derivatives markets experienced significant volatility, with total open interest across top venues plunging to $49.31 billion from a peak above $55 billion on June 12, according to Velo data. Binance alone shed over $2.5 billion in open interest overnight. Options positioning turned defensive, with Bitcoin and Ethereum put/call ratios rising to 1.28 and 1.25 respectively on Deribit, indicating heightened demand for downside protection. Funding rates remained negative, with Ethereum at -7.99% and Bitcoin at -1.06% on Binance, while altcoins like Polkadot and Chainlink showed discounts of -15.2% and -15.1%. Liquidations totaled $1.16 billion in the past 24 hours, with 90% coming from long positions, as reported by Coinglass. Bitcoin liquidation heatmaps highlight $84 million in long-side open interest between $102,000 and $104,000, which could amplify losses if breached.

Trading Opportunities and Technical Outlook

Technical analysis reveals Ethereum testing critical support at $2,480, aligned with the 200-day exponential moving average, which has served as a key level since May. A daily close above this support would signal strength, while resistance persists near the daily order block. Bitcoin's current price near $104,889 faces potential downside risks to $102,000-$104,000 support zones, but a rebound could target $108,000 resistance based on recent highs. Trading opportunities include monitoring leveraged positions for liquidation triggers and capitalizing on oversold conditions in altcoins. Upcoming token unlocks, such as $31.28 million for Arbitrum on June 16 and $37.26 million for ZKsync on June 17, may add selling pressure. Investors should track geopolitical developments, ETF inflows, and key technical levels for strategic entries, with a focus on risk management amid elevated uncertainty.