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Bitcoin Drops 2.9% as Israel-Iran Conflict Triggers Crypto Market Rout: Trading Analysis and Price Impact | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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6/24/2025 4:48:02 AM

Bitcoin Drops 2.9% as Israel-Iran Conflict Triggers Crypto Market Rout: Trading Analysis and Price Impact

Bitcoin Drops 2.9% as Israel-Iran Conflict Triggers Crypto Market Rout: Trading Analysis and Price Impact

According to CoinDesk, cryptocurrencies slid sharply due to Israeli airstrikes on Iran, heightening geopolitical tensions and causing a flight from risk assets, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling 2.9% and the CoinDesk 20 Index dropping 6.1% over 24 hours. Solana (SOL) plunged nearly 9.5% despite earlier gains from SEC ETF speculation, as noted by Jake Ostrovskis of Wintermute. Spot BTC ETFs saw $939 million in net inflows month-to-date, while ETH ETFs attracted $811 million, per Farside Investors. Polymarket traders estimate a 91% chance of Iranian retaliation, adding market uncertainty. Key trading events include Brazil's SOL futures launch on June 16 and the U.S. Senate vote on the GENIUS Act.

Source

Analysis

Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities triggered a global risk asset selloff on June 14, with cryptocurrencies experiencing significant declines despite bitcoin's perceived haven status. According to CoinDesk market data, the CoinDesk 20 Index plunged 6.1% within 24 hours while bitcoin dropped 2.9% to $104,889.07 by 4 p.m. ET Thursday. Simultaneously, traditional safe havens surged: gold futures rose 1.3% to $3,445 per ounce, nearing all-time highs, and Brent crude oil spiked 14% intraday. The attack occurred hours after the International Atomic Energy Agency reported Iranian uranium enrichment violations, escalating Middle East tensions. Global equity markets reacted negatively, with Japan's Nikkei falling 0.89%, Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.37%, and E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures dropping 1.42%. This geopolitical turmoil reversed earlier crypto gains fueled by ETF speculation, particularly impacting Solana's SOL which surrendered its 24-hour rally sparked by SEC filing updates. Polymarket probability metrics indicate traders now assign a 91% chance of Iranian retaliation this month, compounding market uncertainty as investors shift focus from fundamental catalysts to geopolitical risks.

The crypto-stock correlation strengthened during the risk aversion event, with institutional money flows revealing nuanced behavior. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $86.3 million in daily net inflows despite the selloff, bringing cumulative inflows to $45.29 billion according to Farside Investors data. Similarly, ether ETFs attracted $112.3 million. This suggests institutions viewed the dip as a buying opportunity, contrasting with retail liquidations exceeding $1.16 billion according to CoinGlass, of which 90% were long positions. Crypto-related equities mirrored digital asset declines: Coinbase fell 3.84% to $241.05, while MicroStrategy dropped 1.9% to $379.76 during Thursday's session. Derivative markets showed heightened defensive positioning, with Deribit put/call ratios climbing to 1.28 for BTC and 1.25 for ETH, indicating increased demand for downside protection. Trading opportunities emerge in volatility arbitrage between correlated assets: the gold/BTC ratio surged to 30.6 ounces per bitcoin as traditional havens outperformed, while oil's 6% spike created headwinds for energy-intensive mining stocks like Riot Platforms which fell 3.22%.

Technical indicators reveal critical support levels tested during the selloff. Bitcoin briefly touched its 50-day simple moving average at $103,150 according to CoinDesk analysis, with liquidation heatmaps showing $84 million in long positions concentrated between $102K-$104K. Ether faced resistance at daily order blocks before plunging to test its 200-day exponential moving average near $2,480, a key support level holding since May. Derivatives data from Velo shows open interest plummeting from $55 billion on June 12 to $49.31 billion, the lowest monthly level, with Binance alone shedding $2.5 billion in OI overnight. Funding rates turned deeply negative across altcoins: Polkadot registered -15.2%, Chainlink -15.1%, and SHIB -44.5% on major exchanges. Volume correlations intensified, with the DXY dollar index rising 0.44% to 98.35 as crypto fell, reinforcing inverse USD relationships. Upcoming token unlocks pose additional pressure, including ZKsync's $37.26 million unlock on June 17 representing 20.91% of circulating supply. Monitoring the ETH/BTC ratio, which declined 3.52% to 0.02412, provides cross-market sentiment cues as traders assess relative asset strength during geopolitical crises.

Farside Investors

@FarsideUK

Farside Investors is a London based investment management company. Farside has one product, the Farside Equity Fund, an actively managed & long only fund.

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