Bitcoin Drops 2.9% as Israel-Iran Conflict Triggers Crypto Market Rout: Trading Analysis and Price Impact

According to CoinDesk, cryptocurrencies slid sharply due to Israeli airstrikes on Iran, heightening geopolitical tensions and causing a flight from risk assets, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling 2.9% and the CoinDesk 20 Index dropping 6.1% over 24 hours. Solana (SOL) plunged nearly 9.5% despite earlier gains from SEC ETF speculation, as noted by Jake Ostrovskis of Wintermute. Spot BTC ETFs saw $939 million in net inflows month-to-date, while ETH ETFs attracted $811 million, per Farside Investors. Polymarket traders estimate a 91% chance of Iranian retaliation, adding market uncertainty. Key trading events include Brazil's SOL futures launch on June 16 and the U.S. Senate vote on the GENIUS Act.
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The crypto-stock correlation strengthened during the risk aversion event, with institutional money flows revealing nuanced behavior. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $86.3 million in daily net inflows despite the selloff, bringing cumulative inflows to $45.29 billion according to Farside Investors data. Similarly, ether ETFs attracted $112.3 million. This suggests institutions viewed the dip as a buying opportunity, contrasting with retail liquidations exceeding $1.16 billion according to CoinGlass, of which 90% were long positions. Crypto-related equities mirrored digital asset declines: Coinbase fell 3.84% to $241.05, while MicroStrategy dropped 1.9% to $379.76 during Thursday's session. Derivative markets showed heightened defensive positioning, with Deribit put/call ratios climbing to 1.28 for BTC and 1.25 for ETH, indicating increased demand for downside protection. Trading opportunities emerge in volatility arbitrage between correlated assets: the gold/BTC ratio surged to 30.6 ounces per bitcoin as traditional havens outperformed, while oil's 6% spike created headwinds for energy-intensive mining stocks like Riot Platforms which fell 3.22%.
Technical indicators reveal critical support levels tested during the selloff. Bitcoin briefly touched its 50-day simple moving average at $103,150 according to CoinDesk analysis, with liquidation heatmaps showing $84 million in long positions concentrated between $102K-$104K. Ether faced resistance at daily order blocks before plunging to test its 200-day exponential moving average near $2,480, a key support level holding since May. Derivatives data from Velo shows open interest plummeting from $55 billion on June 12 to $49.31 billion, the lowest monthly level, with Binance alone shedding $2.5 billion in OI overnight. Funding rates turned deeply negative across altcoins: Polkadot registered -15.2%, Chainlink -15.1%, and SHIB -44.5% on major exchanges. Volume correlations intensified, with the DXY dollar index rising 0.44% to 98.35 as crypto fell, reinforcing inverse USD relationships. Upcoming token unlocks pose additional pressure, including ZKsync's $37.26 million unlock on June 17 representing 20.91% of circulating supply. Monitoring the ETH/BTC ratio, which declined 3.52% to 0.02412, provides cross-market sentiment cues as traders assess relative asset strength during geopolitical crises.
Farside Investors
@FarsideUKFarside Investors is a London based investment management company. Farside has one product, the Farside Equity Fund, an actively managed & long only fund.