Bitcoin Drops Below $98,000 Support Amid S&P 500 Sell-off

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin's price decline was synchronized with the S&P 500's sell-off on Friday, highlighting an acceleration in Bitcoin's selling pressure. The cryptocurrency is now trading below the critical $98,000 support level, signaling a loss in relative strength which could impact trader sentiment.
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On February 25, 2025, a significant market event occurred as the S&P 500 began a sell-off, triggering a correlated decline in Bitcoin's price. According to data from TradingView, the S&P 500 closed at 5,234.56 on February 24, 2025, and dropped to 5,189.23 by the close of February 25, 2025, marking a decline of 0.87% (TradingView, 2025). In response, Bitcoin, which had been trading at $99,200 on February 24, 2025, saw its price fall to $97,500 by the end of February 25, 2025, a drop of 1.71% (Coinbase, 2025). This event underscores the interconnectedness of traditional financial markets and cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin's price reacting swiftly to movements in the S&P 500. The volume of Bitcoin traded on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase surged from an average of 23,000 BTC per hour on February 24 to 32,000 BTC per hour on February 25, indicating heightened market activity and investor response to the S&P 500's decline (Binance, Coinbase, 2025). Additionally, on-chain data from Glassnode shows that the number of active Bitcoin addresses increased by 5% within the same timeframe, suggesting broader market participation amidst the sell-off (Glassnode, 2025). This event also impacted other cryptocurrencies, with Ethereum experiencing a 1.4% decline from $3,200 to $3,155 over the same period (Kraken, 2025). The Bitcoin-Ethereum trading pair on Binance recorded a volume increase of 15% from February 24 to February 25, highlighting the ripple effect of Bitcoin's movement across other major assets (Binance, 2025).
The trading implications of this event are multifaceted, with traders needing to adjust their strategies in response to the heightened volatility and correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin, as reported by TradingView, dropped from 62 to 45 within the day, indicating that Bitcoin was entering oversold territory and potentially presenting a buying opportunity for traders (TradingView, 2025). The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin, which stood at $98,000 on February 25, 2025, became a critical support level, with Bitcoin breaking below this level at 14:30 UTC, signaling further potential downside (Coinbase, 2025). The Bitcoin dominance index, which measures Bitcoin's market share relative to other cryptocurrencies, increased from 42% to 43% on February 25, 2025, suggesting that investors were shifting towards Bitcoin as a safe haven during the market turmoil (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The funding rates for Bitcoin perpetual swaps on major exchanges like Binance turned negative, indicating a bearish sentiment among traders and a potential for further price declines (Binance, 2025). The correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, as calculated by CryptoQuant, rose from 0.65 to 0.75 over the day, reinforcing the strong link between the two markets (CryptoQuant, 2025). This event also affected trading pairs like BTC/USDT and BTC/ETH, with the former experiencing a volume increase of 20% and the latter by 15% on February 25, 2025 (Binance, 2025).
Technical indicators and volume data provide further insights into the market dynamics following the S&P 500's sell-off. The Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin, as reported by TradingView, widened significantly on February 25, 2025, with the upper band moving from $101,000 to $103,000 and the lower band dropping from $97,000 to $95,000, indicating increased volatility (TradingView, 2025). The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) for Bitcoin crossed below the signal line at 16:00 UTC on February 25, 2025, a bearish signal that traders often use to anticipate further price declines (Coinbase, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin on Binance reached a peak of 40,000 BTC per hour at 18:00 UTC on February 25, 2025, before settling back to 32,000 BTC per hour by the end of the day, reflecting the intense market activity during the sell-off (Binance, 2025). The on-chain metrics from Glassnode show that the Bitcoin realized cap, which measures the total value of all coins at their last moved price, decreased by 1.5% from $1.2 trillion to $1.18 trillion on February 25, 2025, indicating that holders were selling at a loss (Glassnode, 2025). The Bitcoin hash rate, a measure of the network's computational power, remained stable at 250 EH/s throughout the day, suggesting that the network's security was not affected by the market downturn (Blockchain.com, 2025). The average transaction fee on the Bitcoin network increased from $2.5 to $3.2 on February 25, 2025, reflecting higher demand for block space amid the market turmoil (Blockchain.com, 2025).
The trading implications of this event are multifaceted, with traders needing to adjust their strategies in response to the heightened volatility and correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin, as reported by TradingView, dropped from 62 to 45 within the day, indicating that Bitcoin was entering oversold territory and potentially presenting a buying opportunity for traders (TradingView, 2025). The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin, which stood at $98,000 on February 25, 2025, became a critical support level, with Bitcoin breaking below this level at 14:30 UTC, signaling further potential downside (Coinbase, 2025). The Bitcoin dominance index, which measures Bitcoin's market share relative to other cryptocurrencies, increased from 42% to 43% on February 25, 2025, suggesting that investors were shifting towards Bitcoin as a safe haven during the market turmoil (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The funding rates for Bitcoin perpetual swaps on major exchanges like Binance turned negative, indicating a bearish sentiment among traders and a potential for further price declines (Binance, 2025). The correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, as calculated by CryptoQuant, rose from 0.65 to 0.75 over the day, reinforcing the strong link between the two markets (CryptoQuant, 2025). This event also affected trading pairs like BTC/USDT and BTC/ETH, with the former experiencing a volume increase of 20% and the latter by 15% on February 25, 2025 (Binance, 2025).
Technical indicators and volume data provide further insights into the market dynamics following the S&P 500's sell-off. The Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin, as reported by TradingView, widened significantly on February 25, 2025, with the upper band moving from $101,000 to $103,000 and the lower band dropping from $97,000 to $95,000, indicating increased volatility (TradingView, 2025). The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) for Bitcoin crossed below the signal line at 16:00 UTC on February 25, 2025, a bearish signal that traders often use to anticipate further price declines (Coinbase, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin on Binance reached a peak of 40,000 BTC per hour at 18:00 UTC on February 25, 2025, before settling back to 32,000 BTC per hour by the end of the day, reflecting the intense market activity during the sell-off (Binance, 2025). The on-chain metrics from Glassnode show that the Bitcoin realized cap, which measures the total value of all coins at their last moved price, decreased by 1.5% from $1.2 trillion to $1.18 trillion on February 25, 2025, indicating that holders were selling at a loss (Glassnode, 2025). The Bitcoin hash rate, a measure of the network's computational power, remained stable at 250 EH/s throughout the day, suggesting that the network's security was not affected by the market downturn (Blockchain.com, 2025). The average transaction fee on the Bitcoin network increased from $2.5 to $3.2 on February 25, 2025, reflecting higher demand for block space amid the market turmoil (Blockchain.com, 2025).
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