Bitcoin: ETF Cost Basis Forms Resistance

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have climbed back toward break-even after an $18B drawdown, placing institutional cost basis directly in the path of further upside for BTC.

Bitcoin remains pinned beneath a thick resistance band where a decisive break would mark a long-term market structure shift while any reversal risks heavy losses for late longs.

On the 4h chart BTC trades at $78142.54 inside the Bollinger band with upper resistance at $79638.54; price tests the EMA50 at $78823.83 while the EMA200 sits at $74092.28 as longer-term support, RSI at 40.55 stays neutral and the MACD death cross at -293.52 keeps downside pressure intact, suggesting any bounce into the upper band likely stalls before a deeper test of the 50-EMA confluence.