Bitcoin Falls 2.9% Amid Israel-Iran Conflict: Crypto Market Rout Analysis and Trading Impact

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped 2.9% and the CoinDesk 20 Index declined 6.1% over 24 hours as Israeli airstrikes on Iran heightened global risk aversion, sparking a flight from cryptocurrencies. Solana (SOL), which had rallied on SEC ETF approval speculation, plunged nearly 9.5% amid the conflict, while spot BTC ETFs recorded $86.3 million in daily net inflows. Derivatives data from Velo and Deribit showed increased demand for downside protection, with $1.16 billion in liquidations reported by CoinGlass.
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Israeli airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and military leadership triggered a global flight from risk assets on June 13-14, 2025, causing significant cryptocurrency market turbulence. According to CoinDesk reports, Bitcoin declined 2.9% to $104,889.07 within 24 hours while the CoinDesk 20 Index plummeted 6.1%. Traditional safe havens surged with gold futures rising 1.25% to $3,445 per ounce and Brent crude oil spiking 14% intraday. Global equity markets reflected widespread risk aversion: Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 0.89%, Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.37%, and E-mini S&P 500 futures declined 1.16%. The escalation followed the International Atomic Energy Agency's confirmation of Iran breaching uranium enrichment limits. U.S. officials explicitly denied involvement in the strikes that eliminated key Iranian military figures. This geopolitical flashpoint abruptly reversed crypto's earlier gains driven by ETF speculation, particularly impacting Solana which surrendered its 9.5% rally stemming from SEC solicitation of updated S-1 filings for spot SOL ETFs. OTC trader Jake Ostrovskis at Wintermute confirmed the Solana ETF developments accelerated momentum before the Middle East news dominated sentiment. Bloomberg ETF analysts maintained 90% approval odds for Solana ETFs by year-end, though immediate focus shifted to conflict risks. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $86.3 million daily inflows despite the turmoil, accumulating $45.29 billion total holdings according to Farside Investors data. Polymarket probability metrics indicated 91% expectation of Iranian retaliation within June, elevating geopolitical uncertainty premiums across digital asset markets. The abrupt risk repricing demonstrates cryptocurrencies' persistent sensitivity to macro shocks despite growing institutional adoption through regulated vehicles. Cross-market correlations intensified during the event with oil-gold-crypto divergence highlighting asset class behavior under stress. Brent crude's 14% surge reflected supply chain disruption fears in the Strait of Hormuz where 14 million barrels daily transit according to Bloomberg analysis. Bitcoin's failure to act as a reliable haven contrasted sharply with gold's 1.25% ascent, undermining its digital gold narrative during acute geopolitical crises. This divergence creates tactical opportunities: traders might deploy gold-crypto pairs for volatility arbitrage or structure put spreads on oil-sensitive tokens. Institutional flows showed bifurcation with ETF inflows continuing while derivatives markets unwound aggressively. Total open interest across top exchanges plunged from $55 billion on June 12 to $49.31 billion according to Velo data, representing the lowest monthly levels. Binance alone shed $2.5 billion in OI overnight. Options positioning turned defensive with Deribit reporting BTC put/call ratio at 1.28 and ETH at 1.25, indicating heightened demand for downside protection. Funding rates turned deeply negative for altcoins: ETH registered -7.99% on Deribit, DOT -15.2%, and SHIB -44.5%. The liquidation cascade totaled $1.16 billion according to CoinGlass, with 90% being long positions. Critical technical levels emerged: Bitcoin tested its 50-day SMA at $103,150 while Ethereum battled the 200-day exponential moving average near $2,480. A daily close above $2,480 would signal resilience per technical analysis. Bitcoin dominance rose 0.7% to 64.77, reflecting capital rotation from alts to relative safety. Crypto-correlated equities underperformed: Coinbase dropped 3.84% to $241.05 while MicroStrategy fell 1.9% to $379.76. The ETH/BTC ratio declined 3.52% to 0.02412, suggesting relative Bitcoin strength during flight-to-quality episodes. Upcoming token unlocks pose additional pressure with $31.28 million ARB and $37.26 million ZK releases scheduled between June 16-17. The seven-day BTC options skew hit April lows indicating accelerated put buying according to CoinDesk metrics. Monitoring the $102K-$104K liquidity zone containing $84 million in long liquidation triggers remains critical for near-term directional bias. FAQ How did oil prices affect cryptocurrency markets during the Israel-Iran conflict? Brent crude's 14% spike amplified inflation concerns and risk aversion, accelerating capital flight from crypto assets. Higher oil prices typically strengthen the dollar and increase hedging costs for leveraged positions, exacerbating crypto liquidations. What technical levels are traders watching for Bitcoin? The 50-day simple moving average at $103,150 served as critical support during the selloff. Sustained breaks below could trigger cascading liquidations from the $102K-$104K zone where $84 million in long positions cluster according to Coinglass data. How did ETF flows behave amid the market turmoil? Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $86.3 million net inflows on June 14 according to Farside Investors, demonstrating institutional accumulation during dips despite retail panic. Month-to-date BTC ETF inflows reached $939 million. What derivatives metrics signaled increased fear? The BTC put/call ratio surged to 1.28 on Deribit, its most defensive positioning since April, while annualized funding rates turned negative across major altcoins indicating elevated hedging demand.
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