Bitcoin Price Nears $107K as Ceasefire and Fed Outlook Drive Crypto Rally

Cryptocurrency markets experienced a notable upswing on Wednesday, with Bitcoin BTC approaching the $107,000 mark amid a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel. According to Francisco Rodrigues, BTC surged by 1.7% over the past 24 hours to $106,693.69 as of 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, while the broader crypto index gained 1%. This relief rally, fueled by reduced geopolitical tensions and a shift back into risk assets, saw BTC hit a 24-hour high of $108,000 and a low of $105,801.21, with trading volume reaching 2.19486 BTC. Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, noted that initial optimism is waning due to concerns over the truce's stability, citing a leaked U.S. intelligence report that questions the effectiveness of strikes against Tehran's nuclear capabilities. This uncertainty could pressure prices if military actions resume, highlighting the fragile nature of the current market sentiment.

Fed Policy and Derivatives Data Shape Short-Term Trading Opportunities

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before House lawmakers on Tuesday added momentum to the rally, as he emphasized a "wait-and-see" approach to interest-rate cuts amid elevated inflation and potential tariff pressures. Bitunix analysts stated that this stance introduces short-term uncertainty but supports risk assets overall. Market indicators reflect this: the CME FedWatch tool shows a rise in the perceived chance of a July rate cut to about 20%, up from 13% a week ago, with two-year Treasury yields dropping to a six-week low of 3.78%. In crypto derivatives, Jake O, an OTC trader at Wintermute, observed neutral positioning for the June 27 expiry, with traders selling straddles and short puts near $105,000 and $100,000, indicating expectations of tight price action between $100,000 and $105,000. However, call option buying targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September suggests a modest bullish bias, with BTC funding rates on Binance at 0.0048% (annualized 5.2626%) and ETH at $2,421.55, up 0.19% in 24 hours. This data points to potential range-bound trading, with support at $100,000 and resistance at $108,000 offering entry points for swing traders.

Macro Events and On-Chain Metrics Signal Broader Market Implications

Upcoming macroeconomic events could sway crypto prices, starting with Powell's Senate testimony later today, where traders will scrutinize any hints on rate policy amid pressure from former President Trump for deeper cuts. Key data releases include May durable goods orders on June 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET, with estimates at 8.5% MoM versus the previous -6.3%, and final Q1 GDP figures expected at -0.2% QoQ. On-chain metrics show Bitcoin dominance at 65.52%, up 0.38%, and the Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio at 0.02269, down 1.78%, signaling BTC's strength. Spot BTC ETFs recorded daily net inflows of $588.6 million, according to Farside Investors, boosting cumulative flows to $47.58 billion and total holdings to approximately 1.23 million BTC. ETH ETFs saw $71.3 million in inflows, with holdings at 4.02 million ETH. Additionally, the decline in high-risk DeFi loans by $242 million over two weeks reduces liquidation risks, supporting a healthier market environment. These factors, combined with equity market gains like the S&P 500 closing up 1.11% at 6,092.18, suggest that crypto could benefit from sustained risk appetite if macro data aligns.

Token Events and Trading Strategies for Crypto Investors

Token-specific events present both opportunities and risks for traders. Core CORE will activate its Theseus hard fork on June 25, potentially boosting its EVM-compatible layer-1 blockchain, while ZIGChain ZIG mainnet goes live the same day. Major unlocks include Optimism OP releasing $17.13 million worth of tokens on June 30 and Sui SUI unlocking $122.31 million on July 1, which could increase selling pressure if not absorbed by demand. Technical analysis reveals that the XRP/BTC pair on Binance is trading in a falling wedge pattern, hinting at a bullish reversal if it breaks out. For equities correlated to crypto, MicroStrategy MSTR rose 2.68% to $377.02, with pre-market gains at 1.45%, indicating institutional interest. Traders should monitor Powell's Senate testimony for volatility spikes and consider hedging with options, as Deribit's rising BTC put-call ratio reflects yield-seeking strategies. Overall, with BTC near key resistance, a breakout above $108,000 could target $112,000, while dips to $100,000 offer buying opportunities, especially with ETF inflows supporting long-term bullish sentiment.