Bitcoin: Liquidity Shortage Fuels Bear Market, Analyst Says

Bitcoin did not top because of MicroStrategy, according to Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts. He told @CryptoMichNL that global liquidity remains the dominant force behind all asset prices and that the current bear market stems from a lack of demand rather than any single seller.

Long-term holder distribution peaked in Q3 last year, a classic cycle-top signal. Coutts admitted his own cycle risk model flagged the high yet projected only a 30-40% correction that ultimately marked the cycle peak. He pointed to AI hyperscalers cutting buybacks, record U.S. government issuance, and debt expanding faster than liquidity as the real pressures.

On the 4-hour chart BTC trades at $63814.69 inside the Bollinger bands with the EMA50 at $64571.79 acting as immediate resistance and the EMA200 at $63900.69 offering thin support below. The MACD death cross at -306.2 confirms bearish trend strength while RSI at 42.07 stays neutral, suggesting price may retest the lower band near $63154.22 before any sustained recovery.