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6/30/2026 5:22:00 PM

Bitcoin: Long-Term Holders Hit 45% Loss Threshold

Bitcoin: Long-Term Holders Hit 45% Loss Threshold

Bitcoin long-term holder supply in loss reaches 45% at $58,420, matching prior cycle bottoms while price tests lower Bollinger support on 4h chart.

Source

Analysis

Bitcoin long-term holders now hold 45% of supply in loss, the exact level seen at every prior cycle bottom, even though price remains above realized price according to @DurdenBTC data shared by @Andre_Dragosch.

With BTC trading at $58420.69 on the 4h chart, price tests the lower Bollinger Band support at $58585.53 while EMA50 at $60731.24 and EMA200 at $65690.2 act as concrete resistance overhead; the MACD death cross at -503.12 reinforces bearish momentum as RSI at 33.22 shows neutral conditions without oversold exhaustion, pointing to potential further downside before any relief rally in BTC price prediction models.


André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro

@Andre_Dragosch

European Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.

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