Bitcoin Nears $107K as Ceasefire Boosts Risk Assets

Bitcoin surged to nearly $107,000 on Wednesday, climbing 1.7% over the past 24 hours to $106,693.69 as of the latest update, driven by a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel that eased fears of an immediate oil supply crunch and lifted global risk assets. The broader market, represented by the CoinDesk 20 index, gained 1%, reflecting a broader relief rally in equities and cryptocurrencies. Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, noted that while optimism initially bubbled through markets, doubts are emerging about the truce's durability, citing a leaked U.S. intelligence report that questioned the effectiveness of strikes on Iran's nuclear capabilities. This geopolitical uncertainty underscores the fragility of the gains, with BTC trading volumes on Binance for BTCUSDT reaching $3.995 billion over 24 hours, peaking at $108,077.59 and dipping to a low of $106,486.04.

Fed Powell's Testimony and Rate Cut Implications

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before House lawmakers on Tuesday added critical context to the market dynamics, as he emphasized a patient approach to interest-rate cuts due to elevated inflation and potential tariff pressures. Bitunix analysts highlighted in an emailed statement that Powell's "wait-and-see" stance introduces short-term uncertainty but supports risk assets overall. Concurrently, softening U.S. consumer-confidence data pushed two-year Treasury yields to a six-week low of 3.78%, increasing the perceived probability of a July rate cut to about 20% according to the CME FedWatch tool, up from 13% a week ago. Traders on Polymarket are pricing in an 18% chance, indicating cautious optimism. Powell's upcoming Senate testimony today could further sway sentiment, especially amid political calls for lower rates, with BTC derivatives showing neutral positioning ahead of the June 27 expiry.

Derivatives Market Signals and Trading Opportunities

Crypto derivatives activity reveals nuanced trader expectations, with Jake O, an OTC trader at Wintermute, reporting that straddles and short puts were sold near $105,000 and $100,000, pointing to anticipated tight price action in BTC. However, call option buying targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September expiries suggests a modest bullish tilt. The annualized three-month BTC futures basis on offshore exchanges advanced slightly to 5%, below May highs of over 7%, while perpetual funding rates on Binance for BTC stand at 0.0048% (5.26% annualized), indicating moderate bullishness. Spot BTC ETFs recorded daily net inflows of $588.6 million, with cumulative flows at $47.58 billion holding 1.23 million BTC, according to Farside Investors. For ETH, prices dipped slightly to $2,421.55, but spot ETH ETFs saw $71.3 million in inflows, holding 4.02 million ETH, offering a hedge against volatility.

Key macroeconomic events this week could drive price action, including Powell's Senate testimony today at 10 a.m. ET, U.S. durable goods orders data on June 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET (estimated at 8.5% MoM), and final Q1 GDP figures expected at -0.2% QoQ. Technical analysis shows the XRP/BTC pair on Binance in a falling wedge pattern, hinting at a potential bullish reversal if it breaks resistance. Crypto equities like Coinbase (COIN) closed up 12.1% at $344.82, signaling institutional strength. Traders should watch BTC support near $100,000 and resistance at $108,000, with options flows suggesting range-bound movement but upside potential on positive news.