Bitcoin Approaches $107K Amid Ceasefire Relief and Fed Uncertainty

Bitcoin surged toward the $107,000 level on Wednesday, driven by a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel that eased immediate fears of an oil supply crunch and lifted risk assets globally. According to Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, the fragile truce sparked optimism in equities markets, though doubts emerged after a leaked U.S. intelligence report questioned the effectiveness of strikes on Tehran's nuclear capabilities, potentially reigniting military tensions. Simultaneously, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before House lawmakers on Tuesday emphasized patience on interest rate cuts, citing persistently high inflation and upcoming tariff pressures. Bitunix analysts highlighted in an email that Powell's wait-and-see approach adds short-term policy uncertainty but generally supports risk assets, with traders now eyeing a 20% chance of a July rate cut per the CME FedWatch tool, up from 13% a week ago.

Detailed Price Movements and Market Indicators

Concrete trading data shows Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $106,693.69 as of 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, with a 24-hour gain of 1.36%, peaking at $107,894.30 and finding support near $106,414.03 in the BTC/USDT pair. Volume for BTC/USDT reached 4.52416 BTC, indicating robust activity. Ethereum (ETH) saw a slight dip to $2,421.55 but posted a 0.19% 24-hour increase, with highs at $2,459.00 and lows at $2,382.17 in ETH/USDT trading, accompanied by volume of 281.942 ETH. The broader CoinDesk 20 index gained 0.56% to 2,988.28, while Bitcoin dominance rose 0.38% to 65.52%. Derivatives metrics reveal a stabilizing sentiment, with the annualized three-month BTC futures basis on offshore exchanges at 5%, below May highs above 7%, and perpetual funding rates on Binance for BTC at 0.0048% (5.2626% annualized), signaling moderate bullishness.

Derivatives Positioning and Technical Trading Opportunities

Derivatives activity points to cautious market positioning ahead of the June 27 options expiry, with traders selling straddles near $105,000 and short puts around $100,000, as noted by Jake O, OTC trader at Wintermute, suggesting expectations of tight price action between $100,000 and $105,000. However, call option buying targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September expiries indicates a modest bullish tilt. The BTC put-call ratio on Deribit increased, partly due to cash-secured put strategies for yield generation. Technically, the XRP/BTC pair on Binance is forming a falling wedge pattern, characterized by converging trendlines and lower highs/lows, which could signal a bullish reversal upon breakout. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows totaled $588.6 million daily, with cumulative holdings at $47.58 billion across 1.23 million BTC, while Ethereum spot ETFs saw $71.3 million in daily inflows, per Farside Investors data.

Key Events and Strategic Trading Insights

Upcoming macroeconomic events could drive volatility, including Fed Chair Powell's Senate testimony today, which may clarify rate cut timelines amid President Trump's calls for lower rates. Critical data releases on June 26 include U.S. durable goods orders (estimated at 8.5% MoM vs. previous -6.3%), Q1 GDP figures (final estimate -0.2% QoQ), and unemployment claims, all influencing dollar strength and crypto correlations. With BTC testing resistance near $108,000 and support at $106,000, traders should monitor these levels for breakout opportunities, especially given the ceasefire's fragility. Additionally, token unlocks like Optimism's $17.13 million OP release on June 30 could pressure prices, while events such as the Core hard fork today may spur volatility in altcoins like CORE.