Bitcoin Nears $107K as Ceasefire Boosts Crypto Markets Amid Fed Watch

Bitcoin surged to near $107,000 on Wednesday, with a 1.7% gain over the past 24 hours, riding a wave of geopolitical relief after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel eased fears of an oil supply crunch and lifted risk assets globally. The CoinDesk 20 index climbed 1%, reflecting broad crypto market optimism, but doubts linger about the truce's durability; Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, noted that leaked U.S. intelligence reports casting doubt on the effectiveness of strikes against Tehran's nuclear capabilities have reignited concerns of resumed conflict. As of 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, BTC was priced at $106,693.69, up 1.36% on the day, and by Wednesday morning, it hovered around $107,011.81 on Binance USDT pairs, with a 24-hour high of $107,894.30 and low of $106,414.03, indicating strong volatility. Trading volumes spiked, with BTC/USDT volume hitting 4.522 BTC, underscoring trader interest in capitalizing on short-term rallies fueled by reduced geopolitical risk.

Fed Chair Powell's Comments Shape Rate Cut Expectations

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony on Tuesday emphasized a patient approach to interest-rate cuts, citing elevated inflation and potential tariff pressures, which initially supported risk assets like crypto. According to Bitunix analysts, Powell's wait-and-see stance adds short-term uncertainty but provides market flexibility, with traders now pricing in a 20% chance of a July rate cut via the CME FedWatch tool, up from 13% a week ago. This shift drove two-year Treasury yields to a six-week low of 3.78%, boosting crypto appeal as alternative investments. Powell's upcoming Senate testimony later today is critical; with President Trump advocating for lower rates, any dovish hints could propel BTC toward resistance at $108,000, while hawkish remarks may trigger pullbacks to support near $105,000. Simultaneously, U.S. consumer confidence softened, contributing to the risk-on sentiment that saw Ethereum gain 0.19% to $2,421.55, though it faced pressure at higher levels.

Derivatives and Technical Analysis Signal Range-Bound Action

Crypto derivatives markets show a neutral stance ahead of the June 27 options expiry, with traders selling straddles and short puts around $105,000 and $100,000, as noted by Jake O, an OTC trader at Wintermute, suggesting expectations of tight price consolidation between $100,000 and $105,000. However, call option buying targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September indicates underlying bullish bias, with BTC's annualized three-month futures basis on offshore exchanges at 5%, below May highs of over 7%. On-chain metrics reveal stability, such as Bitcoin's hashrate at 799 EH/s and total fees at 6.16 BTC ($650,033), while technical setups highlight opportunities; the Binance-listed XRP/BTC pair trades in a falling wedge pattern, signaling a potential bullish reversal if it breaks above converging trendlines. Ethereum's funding rate on Binance stands at 0.0048% annualized to 5.2626%, supporting moderate upside, with ETH/BTC at $0.02250, down 0.794%.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $588.6 million in daily net inflows, pushing cumulative flows to $47.58 billion and holdings to 1.23 million BTC, per Farside Investors, while Ethereum ETFs saw $71.3 million inflows, totaling $4.09 billion. Upcoming catalysts include Powell's Senate testimony today, U.S. durable goods orders and GDP data on June 26, and token unlocks like Optimism's $17.13 million release on June 30, which could increase selling pressure. Traders should monitor these events for breakout opportunities, with key resistance at $108,000 for BTC and $2,450 for ETH, and support at $105,000 and $2,380, respectively. The decline in high-risk DeFi loans by $242 million over two weeks reduces liquidation risks, adding to market health.

In summary, Bitcoin's push toward $107K offers tactical entry points amid geopolitical and Fed-driven volatility, but caution is advised with Powell's testimony and economic data on tap. Focus on range-trading strategies using options for yield, and watch for breakouts in altcoins like XRP if the falling wedge resolves upward.