Bitcoin: Odds of Record High This Year Fall to 3%
The Kobeissi Letter states the market now assigns only a 3% chance of Bitcoin hitting a fresh record high this year, with the asset down 25% from the $108,000 level seen in October 2025.
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Bitcoin now carries just a 3% probability of reaching a fresh record high before year-end, according to The Kobeissi Letter. The asset traded at $108,000 in October 2025 and sits 25% lower on a year-over-year basis, leaving the market searching for its next catalyst.
Price action on the 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin at $81,448.12 inside a bearish structure defined by the EMA50 at $82,519.91 and the EMA200 at $82,128.99. The MACD registers a death cross at 96.61 while RSI at 40.77 remains neutral, indicating sellers retain control. With price pressing toward the upper Bollinger Band at $84,530.59, any rejection there would likely target the lower band support at $80,704.19 before the next directional move develops.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.