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Bitcoin Overcomes Bearish Futures and Options Signals: Trading Analysis Amid Geopolitical Tensions | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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6/24/2025 2:23:17 PM

Bitcoin Overcomes Bearish Futures and Options Signals: Trading Analysis Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Bitcoin Overcomes Bearish Futures and Options Signals: Trading Analysis Amid Geopolitical Tensions

According to Valentine Fournier of BRN, Bitcoin (BTC) is overcoming bearish futures and options signals due to growing institutional demand from entities like Texas and Metaplanet, positioning it for long-term resilience. Mean Theodorou of Coinstash expects ongoing volatility from geopolitical events and key macro data, advising caution with altcoins like DOGE and ADA after recent double-digit losses. Key events this week include Fed Chair Powell's testimony and CME's spot-quoted futures launch, which could drive market movements.

Source

Analysis

Financial markets demonstrated resilience following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend of June 22-23, with Brent and WTI crude oil initially gapping 3% higher early Monday before fully reversing gains by afternoon trading according to Wall Street Journal reports. Bitcoin simultaneously recovered from a Sunday dip below $98,000 to trade at $104,800 by Monday afternoon ET, showcasing its ability to overcome bearish derivatives signals. This rebound occurred alongside positive movements in E-mini S&P 500 futures which gained 0.21% to 6,030.50 according to real-time futures data. Valentine Fournier, analyst at BRN, noted in emailed commentary that despite short-term volatility, structural demand drivers remain intact citing Texas' treasury allocations and Tokyo-listed Metaplanet's latest 1,111 BTC purchase at $105,681 per coin as reported by CoinDesk. The corporate accumulation trend extended to Cardone Capital which disclosed a 1,000 BTC balance sheet addition. Mean Theodorou of Coinstash highlighted persistent volatility risks from macro catalysts including Fed Chair Powell's June 24-25 Congressional testimony and June 30 core PCE data, noting altcoins like DOGE, ADA and SOL suffered double-digit losses amid broad de-risking. Current derivatives positioning reveals annualized BTC futures basis compressed below 5% on offshore exchanges according to Deribit data, narrowing against the 10-year Treasury yield while CME basis held at 7%. Negative cumulative volume delta across major tokens indicated dominant selling pressure, with near-dated puts trading at premiums to calls reflecting defensive positioning. Funding rates turned slightly positive for BTC (0.0007% on OKX) and ETH but remained deeply negative for TRX, BCH and XLM. The dollar index broke its January downtrend line to trade at 99.29 according to Bloomberg data, historically pressuring dollar-denominated assets. Bitcoin's recovery above the $98,200 realized price anchor cited by analysts proved crucial, with current BTC dominance at 65.67% and USDT pair volume hitting 14.14 BTC equivalent. Spot BTC ETFs recorded $6.4 million inflows according to Farside Investors despite ETH ETF outflows of $11.3 million, showing divergent institutional appetite. Technical resilience emerged as BTC/USDT surged 3.76% to $104,961 with notable altcoin outperformance: SOL/USDT gained 7.4% to $142.80, ADA/USDT rose 6.18% to $0.5777, and LINK/USDT jumped 10.64% to $12.90. On-chain metrics showed network health with hashrate at 835 EH/s and hashprice $50.94. Cross-market correlations strengthened as S&P 500 futures and bitcoin moved in lockstep, while gold's 0.16% decline to $3,380 contrasted with crypto's rebound, suggesting shifting risk appetites. Crypto equities diverged pre-market with Circle surging 7.1% while Coinbase fell 1.69%, reflecting varied institutional positioning ahead of key macro events. The oil-crypto dislocation highlighted bitcoin's evolving safe-haven characteristics as Middle East tensions failed to sustain risk-off momentum beyond initial knee-jerk reactions. Key thresholds for traders include Powell testimony impact on rate expectations and the $98,200 bitcoin cost basis as a bull market preservation level.

Omkar Godbole, MMS Finance, CMT

@godbole17

Staff of MMS Finance.

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