Bitcoin: Polymarket Favors Sub-$50K Trade in 2026

Bitcoin $BTC sits at $63695.98 on the 4h chart inside a bearish trend with price below both EMA50 at $70344.76 and EMA200 at $74989.08. Polymarket currently prices the highest odds on BTC printing a sub-$50000 print at any point during 2026. Momentum shows RSI(14) at 25.97, deep in oversold territory, while MACD registers a clear death cross at -2450.13. Price remains trapped inside the Bollinger Bands with lower support at $61337.03 and upper resistance at $73526.85. With price testing the lower band while the longer-term EMAs act as overhead resistance, a sustained move lower toward the 50-EMA confluence remains the path of least resistance before any relief rally can develop. BTC price prediction markets now price the 2026 low as the dominant scenario.