Bitcoin: Power Curve Flags Half Fair Value

Bitcoin sits at roughly half its power curve fair value according to macro researcher Matthew Mezinskis, with the model pinning the current target near $145000.

Mezinskis distinguishes Bitcoin from gold by noting gold follows a straight exponential line on log charts at 5.7 percent annual compounding, while BTC obeys a power law where every 13 percent increase in asset life doubles price. The relationship has held for 13 years, projecting roughly $1.1 million by 2033 without reliance on halving cycles or adoption narratives.

4H Chart Technical Confluence

Price at $76938.71 tests the lower Bollinger Band support near $77411.16 while the EMA50 at $78740.1 acts as immediate resistance and the EMA200 at $74093.71 provides deeper structural support; the MACD death cross at -414.23 reinforces bearish momentum even as RSI at 30.35 leaves room for a relief bounce before any sustained move toward the power curve reversion.