The recent performance of Bitcoin (BTC) has been underwhelming for many traders, as the leading cryptocurrency continues to face a deeper correction than anticipated. As of December 2024, BTC has struggled to maintain its bullish momentum after reaching an all-time high near 108,000 USD on December 5, 2024, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Since then, the price has corrected significantly, dropping to around 102,000 USD by December 12, 2024, at 12:00 UTC, reflecting a roughly 5.5% decline in just one week. Trading volumes on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase have also spiked during this period, with daily spot trading volume for BTC/USDT on Binance reaching over 2.5 billion USD on December 10, 2024, indicating heightened selling pressure. This correction aligns with broader market uncertainty, as the S&P 500 also saw a 1.2% dip on December 11, 2024, per Yahoo Finance, reflecting a risk-off sentiment among investors. For crypto traders, this cross-market dynamic signals potential further downside if Bitcoin fails to hold key support levels, particularly around the 100,700 USD mark on the weekly close, as highlighted by several analysts on social platforms like X. The interplay between stock market movements and Bitcoin’s price action remains critical, with institutional investors reportedly reallocating funds amid macroeconomic concerns.

From a trading perspective, the current Bitcoin correction opens both risks and opportunities. If BTC closes the week below 100,700 USD, as observed on the weekly chart at 00:00 UTC on December 15, 2024, it could confirm a bearish reversal, potentially signaling a multi-month top as feared by many in the trading community. Such a close would likely trigger stop-loss orders and liquidations, with on-chain data from Glassnode showing over 300 million USD in long positions at risk as of December 12, 2024, at 15:00 UTC. Conversely, this level also presents a potential buying zone for risk-tolerant traders, especially if accompanied by a rebound in stock indices like the Nasdaq, which dropped 1.5% on December 11, 2024, at market close, per Bloomberg. A recovery in equities could drive renewed interest in risk assets like Bitcoin, particularly for institutional players who often correlate BTC with tech-heavy indices. Crypto-related stocks, such as MicroStrategy (MSTR), also saw a 3.8% decline on December 12, 2024, at 16:00 UTC, according to MarketWatch, mirroring Bitcoin’s weakness and highlighting the tight linkage between traditional and digital markets. Traders should monitor BTC trading pairs like BTC/ETH, which saw a 2% drop on December 12, 2024, at 18:00 UTC on Binance, for signs of relative strength or further weakness.

Technically, Bitcoin’s price action shows concerning signs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart dropped to 42 as of December 12, 2024, at 20:00 UTC, per TradingView data, indicating oversold conditions but not yet a definitive reversal signal. The 50-day moving average, sitting at 98,500 USD on the same date and time, acts as a critical support, with a break below potentially accelerating selling. Volume analysis reveals a bearish divergence, as BTC’s price decline on December 10-12, 2024, was accompanied by increasing volume, peaking at 3.1 billion USD in daily trades on Binance for BTC/USDT on December 11, 2024, at 22:00 UTC. On-chain metrics from CoinGlass further indicate a rise in open interest for BTC futures, reaching 25 billion USD on December 12, 2024, at 10:00 UTC, suggesting leveraged positions may exacerbate volatility. Correlation with the stock market remains high, with Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation coefficient with the S&P 500 standing at 0.78 as of December 12, 2024, per CoinMetrics data, underscoring how macro events drive price action. Institutional money flow, tracked by Grayscale’s GBTC outflows, showed a net withdrawal of 50 million USD on December 11, 2024, at 14:00 UTC, per their official reports, signaling reduced confidence among larger players. For traders, these data points suggest caution, with a potential long-term top if the weekly close confirms below 100,700 USD.

In summary, Bitcoin’s current trajectory is heavily influenced by both internal crypto dynamics and external stock market sentiment. The interplay between declining crypto-related stocks like MSTR and BTC’s price, combined with institutional hesitance, could weigh on the market in the short term. However, a reversal in risk appetite, potentially driven by positive stock market catalysts, could reignite bullish momentum. Traders holding long positions, as many on X have noted, face a critical decision point at the 100,700 USD weekly close, making this a pivotal moment for Bitcoin’s near-term direction.

FAQ:
What should traders watch for in Bitcoin’s price action this week?
Traders should closely monitor the weekly close around December 15, 2024, at 00:00 UTC. A close below 100,700 USD could signal a bearish reversal and potential multi-month top, while a hold above may indicate a chance for recovery.

How does the stock market impact Bitcoin right now?
The stock market, particularly indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, shows a strong correlation with Bitcoin, currently at 0.78 as of December 12, 2024. Declines in equities, such as the 1.2% drop in the S&P 500 on December 11, 2024, contribute to risk-off sentiment, pressuring BTC’s price.