Bitcoin (BTC) has shown resilience in the face of geopolitical uncertainty, buoyed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent statement ruling out immediate military intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict. As of the latest market update at 4 p.m. ET on Thursday, BTC is trading at $101,408.26, reflecting a 0.93% decline over the past 24 hours, with a high of $103,500.01 and a low of $98,600.00, according to real-time market data. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) stands at $2,249.07, down 0.82% in the same period, with a 24-hour range between $2,286.88 and $2,124.65. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index has risen by 1.3% to 3,034.29 as of the same timestamp, indicating a mixed but generally stable crypto market sentiment. In traditional markets, the S&P 500 closed nearly flat at 5,980.87 (down 0.03%) on Wednesday, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.13% to 19,546.27, showing cautious optimism among risk assets. Trump’s comments, reported by various financial outlets, reduced the likelihood of U.S. military action before month-end from 70% to 40% on prediction market Polymarket, easing immediate fears of market disruption. However, as noted by AJ Bell investment analyst Dan Coatsworth in a statement to Yahoo Finance, this two-week hiatus keeps the issue alive for markets into the following week. This geopolitical backdrop has implications for risk appetite, with oil prices dropping 1.7% after a three-week rally and European stock indices like the Euro Stoxx 50 gaining 0.80% to 5,238.57 as of the latest close. For crypto traders, this temporary de-escalation provides a window of relative stability, though underlying risks persist with Bitcoin’s potential downside to $92,000 flagged by CryptoQuant due to weakened demand metrics since April.

The trading implications of this geopolitical reprieve are significant for both crypto and stock markets, creating cross-market opportunities and risks. Bitcoin’s current price action, hovering near $101,408.26 as of 4 p.m. ET Thursday, shows a consolidation phase after testing the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), with potential to reclaim the Monday high near $109,000 if bullish momentum sustains above the monthly open. However, a warning from CryptoQuant highlights a 60% drop in ETF flows since April and a 50% slowdown in whale buying, alongside short-term holders offloading 800,000 BTC since late May. This suggests a fragile demand structure that could push BTC down to $92,000 if buying pressure doesn’t recover. Ethereum, trading at $2,249.07, mirrors this cautious outlook with a 24-hour volume of 38.85 BTC on major pairs like ETHUSD, reflecting subdued activity compared to peaks earlier this year. In traditional markets, crypto-related stocks like Coinbase Global (COIN) surged 16.32% to $295.29 on Wednesday’s close, while Circle (CRCL) jumped 33.82% to $199.59, indicating strong institutional interest in crypto infrastructure despite BTC’s price stagnation. This divergence suggests that stock market gains in crypto equities could signal upcoming capital rotation into digital assets if risk sentiment improves. For traders, this presents opportunities in pairs like BTCUSDT, which recorded a 24-hour volume of 16.21 BTC with a price of $101,111.17 (down 1.45% as of the latest data), and ETHUSDT at $2,248.20 (down 0.97%) with a volume of 500.06 ETH. Monitoring stock market futures, such as E-mini S&P 500 futures down 0.24% to 5,967.00, can provide early signals of risk-off moves impacting crypto.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s reclaiming of the monthly open and successful retest of the 50-day EMA as of Thursday’s 4 p.m. ET data point to a potential short-term momentum shift. BTC’s 24-hour trading volume on BTCUSD stands at 2.83 BTC, with liquidation clusters between $106,000 and $108,000 cleared recently, as per Binance heatmaps via Coinglass data showing $131.89 million in 24-hour liquidations (56% shorts) as of the latest update. ETH led notional liquidations at $32.2 million, followed by BTC at $28.7 million, indicating squeezed leverage but limited directional conviction. On-chain metrics from Glassnode suggest subdued activity, potentially reflecting a mature market with institutional dominance in large, infrequent transactions as of their latest report. Open interest (OI) across derivatives venues remains stable at $56.73 billion, though below the June 11 peak of $65.95 billion, according to Velo data. Funding rates for BTC and ETH perpetual swaps are positive at 10.95% APR on Bybit as of the latest snapshot, signaling bullish sentiment, while BNB shows negative funding at -22.73%, hinting at short pressure. For altcoins, SOLUSDT gained 0.89% to $133.91 with a 24-hour volume of 4,374.06 SOL, and ADAUSDT dropped 0.74% to $0.5393 with a volume of 245,427.40 ADA, reflecting mixed performance across pairs. BTC dominance holds at 65% as of Thursday’s data, underscoring its market influence amidst these dynamics.

Analyzing stock-crypto correlations, the recent strength in crypto equities like Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL), with gains of 16.32% and 33.82% respectively as of Wednesday’s close, contrasts with Bitcoin’s tepid price action at $101,408.26 (down 0.93% over 24 hours as of 4 p.m. ET Thursday). This suggests institutional money may be flowing into crypto-adjacent stocks as a proxy for digital asset exposure, especially as spot BTC ETF daily net flows remain at $0 with cumulative flows at $46.63 billion, per Farside Investors data. The slight uptick in U.S. equity futures earlier on Thursday, though now down (E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures at -0.25% to 21,666.75), indicates a wait-and-see approach among investors, which could delay capital inflows into riskier assets like BTC and ETH. For traders, this correlation highlights opportunities in crypto stocks as leading indicators of potential BTC rallies if stock market sentiment improves post-geopolitical updates. Conversely, a risk-off move in traditional markets could exacerbate CryptoQuant’s warned $92,000 downside for BTC, making cross-market vigilance crucial for position sizing and risk management in the coming days.

FAQ Section:
What is the current price of Bitcoin and its potential downside risk?
As of 4 p.m. ET on Thursday, Bitcoin is trading at $101,408.26, down 0.93% over the past 24 hours. According to a recent CryptoQuant report, there is a risk of BTC dropping to $92,000 or lower if demand fails to rebound, driven by a 60% decline in ETF flows since April and significant selling by short-term holders.

How are crypto-related stocks performing compared to Bitcoin?
Crypto-related stocks like Coinbase Global (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) showed strong gains of 16.32% and 33.82% respectively as of Wednesday’s market close. In contrast, Bitcoin’s price has declined by 0.93% over 24 hours to $101,408.26 as of 4 p.m. ET Thursday, indicating a divergence that may reflect institutional interest shifting to equities as a proxy for crypto exposure.