Bitcoin Price Holds at $105K Amid Trump-Iran Tensions and Senate GENIUS Act Approval

According to QCP Capital, Bitcoin remains resilient above $100,000 despite escalating Middle East tensions, supported by corporate accumulation, with Strategy adding over 10,000 BTC and The Blockchain Group acquiring 182 BTC. Trump's comments raised U.S. conflict odds to 62% on Polymarket, while the Senate's passage of the GENIUS Act is viewed as a structural win for crypto markets. Traders are monitoring the Fed's rate decision, expected unchanged per CME FedWatch, amid risks like the Nobitex hack linked to Israel.
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Bitcoin demonstrated notable resilience amid escalating Middle East tensions, trading near $104,736 as of June 18 according to CoinDesk data, representing a modest 1.4% decline over 24 hours despite geopolitical volatility. Former President Trump's characterization of Iran's leader as an easy target pushed conflict probability to 62% on prediction market Polymarket, up from 50% just 24 hours prior. This geopolitical uncertainty was counterbalanced by robust institutional accumulation, with corporate entities like Strategy adding 10,000 BTC through its STRD offering and The Blockchain Group acquiring 182 BTC this week. Simultaneously, the U.S. Senate's passage of the GENIUS Act marked a watershed regulatory development, establishing the first federal framework for stablecoins. The legislation signaled growing political acceptance of crypto assets, providing structural support to markets. Federal Reserve policy decisions loomed large, with CME FedWatch indicating 98% probability of unchanged rates at 4.25%-4.50%, focusing trader attention on forward guidance for potential market-moving signals. Bitcoin's ability to maintain footing above the critical $100,000 psychological barrier contrasted sharply with April 2023's 8% plunge during similar Middle East turmoil, highlighting strengthened market foundations. Corporate treasury movements accelerated substantially, with Fold securing $250 million for bitcoin acquisitions and Mercury Fintech planning an $800 million treasury allocation. These developments collectively reinforced bitcoin's emerging role as a institutional-grade asset during geopolitical stress tests, though regional conflict escalation risks remained heightened. The Iranian crypto exchange Nobitex suffered a $48 million hack attributed to Israel-linked actors, demonstrating how physical conflicts now directly penetrate digital asset ecosystems. Market participants awaited U.S. session activity for decisive price discovery, with Wintermute OTC traders advising caution until North American liquidity entered the fray. Ongoing institutional accumulation patterns suggested sophisticated capital was interpreting short-term geopolitical shocks as buying opportunities within a broader macro accumulation trend. This institutional undercurrent helped stabilize markets despite surging conflict probabilities, with corporate treasury announcements functioning as counter-cyclical buffers against panic selling. The Senate's bipartisan approval of the GENIUS Act validated stablecoins' financial infrastructure role, potentially accelerating institutional adoption pathways. Market structure developments continued with multiple Canadian XRP ETF launches including Purpose Investments and Evolve Funds Group listings on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Crypto equities showed mixed reactions: Coinbase Global gained 0.65% to $255.50 while Marathon Digital rose 0.48% to $14.74. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $216.5 million daily inflows according to Farside Investors data, maintaining their 2024 accumulation trajectory despite geopolitical headwinds. Technical indicators revealed nuanced positioning: Deribit's BTC Volatility Index declined to 40.86 from April's 62 peak, signaling reduced near-term fear. However, protective put options dominated Deribit's most traded BTC contracts at $90,000-$100,000 strikes, indicating institutional hedging activity. Funding rates on Binance remained marginally positive at 0.0048% annualized to 5.28%, suggesting cautious leverage deployment. Chainlink's LINK breached technical support beneath its Ichimoku cloud, eyeing the $12.60 June low as critical defense. Cross-asset correlations intensified with gold futures dipping 0.19% to $3,400.40 while the Dollar Index weakened 0.17% to 98.65, maintaining bitcoin's negative dollar correlation. The S&P 500's 0.84% decline to 5,982.72 reflected synchronized risk asset pressures. Traders monitored the Federal Reserve's 2pm ET rate decision for unexpected hawkish signals that could strain both crypto and equities, particularly given bitcoin's heightened sensitivity to liquidity expectations. Ethereum's CESR staking yield edged up 6 basis points to 3.02%, reflecting network demand. Critical token unlocks approached including Fasttoken's $88.8 million release and Sui's $121 million July unlock, presenting potential supply overhangs. The evolving Iran-Israel conflict represented the dominant macro variable, with potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions posing systemic risk to all speculative assets. Institutional flows appeared to bifurcate between short-term geopolitical hedging and strategic accumulation, creating volatile but range-bound trading conditions. Bitcoin's resilience near $105,000 established a technical baseline for traders, with sustained institutional participation providing fundamental support against escalating geopolitical risks.
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