Bitcoin Nears $107K Amid Ceasefire Relief and Fed Policy Focus

Cryptocurrency markets experienced a notable rally on Wednesday, with Bitcoin BTC climbing toward the $107,000 threshold, as geopolitical tensions eased following a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel. According to real-time market data, BTCUSD traded at $107,252.88 at the time of reporting, showing a 24-hour decline of 0.166% but having peaked at $108,000 earlier in the session. Ethereum ETH saw a similar pattern, trading at $2,441.67 with a 24-hour drop of 1.663%, after hitting a high of $2,495.30. This uplift mirrored gains in global equities, such as the S&P 500 rising 1.11% to close at 6,092.18 on Tuesday, as traders shifted back into risk assets amid reduced fears of an oil supply disruption.

Drivers Behind the Market Surge

The ceasefire agreement provided immediate relief, but Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, cautioned that optimism is fragile due to doubts about its longevity, citing a leaked U.S. intelligence report that could prompt renewed military actions. Concurrently, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony on Tuesday emphasized patience with interest-rate cuts, pointing to persistent inflation and potential tariff impacts. Bitunix analysts highlighted that this "wait-and-see" approach creates short-term uncertainty but supports risk assets overall. Market sentiment was further buoyed by softening U.S. consumer confidence, which pushed two-year Treasury yields to a six-week low of 3.78% and raised the probability of a July rate cut to 20%, up from 13% a week prior, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Derivatives Positioning and Options Activity

Crypto derivatives desks are signaling a neutral stance ahead of the June 27 expiry, with traders focusing on key price levels. Jake O, an OTC trader at Wintermute, noted that straddle sales and short puts near $105,000 and $100,000 indicate expectations of tight range-bound action for BTC. However, call option buying targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September suggests a modest bullish tilt. The BTC put-call ratio on Deribit increased, partly driven by cash-secured puts for yield generation, while the annualized three-month BTC futures basis on offshore exchanges held steady at 5%, below May highs of 7%. Perpetual funding rates on Binance remained moderately bullish at 0.0048% for BTC, reinforcing cautious optimism.

ETF inflows underscore institutional confidence, with spot BTC ETFs recording daily net flows of $588.6 million and cumulative holdings reaching $47.58 billion, according to Farside Investors. Similarly, spot ETH ETFs added $71.3 million, bringing total ETH holdings to 4.02 million. This aligns with a $242 million drop in high-risk DeFi loans over two weeks, signaling reduced liquidation risks and healthier market conditions. Traders should monitor Powell's Senate testimony today for hints on monetary policy, alongside key data releases like May durable goods orders and Q1 GDP figures on June 26, which could drive volatility.

Trading Strategies and Market Opportunities

Technical analysis reveals trading opportunities, such as the XRP/BTC pair forming a falling wedge pattern on Binance, suggesting a potential bullish reversal if it breaks resistance. Support levels for BTC are firm at $100,000 and $105,000, with resistance near $108,000; a breach above could target $112,000. Altcoins like BCH showed strength, with BCHUSD up 0.692% to $494.70, while SOLUSD dropped 2.458% to $141.68. Given the neutral derivatives positioning, traders might employ range-trading strategies around $105,000-$108,000 or accumulate on dips with stop-losses below $100,000. Upcoming token unlocks, such as Optimism OP's $17.13 million release on June 30, could add selling pressure, so position sizing is crucial amid Powell's remarks.