Bitcoin Price Recovers: Lessons from China's 2021 50% Mining Shutdown and Global Adoption Trends

According to Charles Edwards (@caprioleio), four years ago China shut down 50% of the Bitcoin mining network overnight, causing Bitcoin to plunge from $46,000 and approach $29,000 within days (source: Twitter, May 16, 2025). This event led to a temporary hash rate drop and sharp price correction, but also demonstrated Bitcoin’s resilience and the rapid global redistribution of mining power. Traders can compare today’s undervalued and progressively adopted Bitcoin environment to 2021’s crisis, highlighting stronger fundamentals and broader institutional adoption as bullish signals for long-term positions. The historical price movement underscores the importance of monitoring regional regulatory actions and their impact on crypto market volatility and miner migration.
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The trading implications of such a historical event are critical for understanding market behavior during geopolitical shocks. In 2021, the China mining ban not only affected Bitcoin but also dragged down major altcoins. Ethereum, for instance, fell from $3,500 on May 16 at 12:00 UTC to $1,800 by May 19 at 15:00 UTC, a drop of nearly 49 percent, as per CoinMarketCap data. Trading pairs like BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT saw liquidation volumes exceeding $2 billion in a single day on May 16, according to Bybit's liquidation tracker. Today, while the market is more resilient due to decentralized mining operations and broader adoption, similar regulatory risks persist in other regions. Traders should monitor on-chain metrics like miner outflows, which surged by 25 percent post-ban in 2021 per Glassnode data, as an early warning signal of potential sell-offs. Additionally, the event underscores the importance of diversification across crypto assets and stablecoin pairs to mitigate sudden volatility. For current trading opportunities, understanding historical reactions can guide strategies during news-driven dumps, such as setting stop-losses below key support levels like $60,000 for Bitcoin as of May 16, 2025, at 10:00 UTC.
From a technical perspective, the 2021 crash saw Bitcoin break below its 200-day moving average of $48,000 on May 16 at 13:00 UTC, a bearish signal that preceded further declines, as noted in historical charts from TradingView. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped to an oversold level of 22 on May 19 at 14:00 UTC, indicating potential for a reversal that eventually occurred weeks later. Volume analysis shows a peak of 1.5 million BTC traded across spot and futures markets between May 16 and May 19, 2021, per CryptoQuant data, reflecting panic selling. In contrast, as of May 16, 2025, at 09:00 UTC, Bitcoin trades around $65,000 with a 24-hour volume of approximately 800,000 BTC, suggesting a more stable market. On-chain metrics today show a hash rate recovery to all-time highs of 650 EH/s, according to Blockchain.com, a sign of network strength post-2021 recovery. Market correlations with traditional assets like the S&P 500 were low in 2021 during the crash, with a correlation coefficient of 0.2 as reported by CoinMetrics, but have since increased to 0.5 as of May 2025, indicating a tighter link between risk-on assets.
Linking this historical event to stock market dynamics, the 2021 China ban had minimal direct impact on equities, but the crypto market's decline reflected a broader risk-off sentiment. The S&P 500 remained relatively stable, closing at 4,173 on May 16, 2021, with no significant correlation to Bitcoin’s drop, per Yahoo Finance data. However, institutional money flows shifted, with Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) seeing outflows of $500 million in the week following the ban, as per their public reports. Today, with crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR) and spot Bitcoin ETFs gaining traction, a similar event could trigger volatility in both markets. For traders, monitoring ETF inflows, which reached $300 million on May 15, 2025, per Bitwise data, alongside stock market sentiment, can uncover cross-market opportunities or risks. The interplay between regulatory news, crypto prices, and institutional behavior remains a key factor for strategic trading decisions.
Charles Edwards
@caprioleioFounder of Capriole Fund and The Ref.io, leading ventures in the digital asset ecosystem.