Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated resilience in early Friday trading, buoyed by geopolitical developments as President Donald Trump signaled a potential two-week delay in U.S. military intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict, reducing immediate market uncertainty. According to reports from Yahoo Finance, Trump's comments lowered the odds of action by month-end on prediction market Polymarket from 70% to 40%, providing temporary relief for risk assets. Bitcoin traded around $106,000 at the time, up 0.9% over the past 24 hours, while a broad cryptocurrency index gained 0.77%. Traditional markets echoed this sentiment, with European stock indexes rising and oil prices slipping 1.7% after a three-week rally. U.S. equity futures also edged higher, reflecting a cautious optimism among traders.

Diverging Risks and On-Chain Indicators

Despite the short-term stability, analysts highlighted diverging risks that could impact Bitcoin's trajectory. AJ Bell investment analyst Dan Coatsworth, via Yahoo Finance, emphasized that the geopolitical hiatus keeps tensions alive as a market driver. Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reported subdued on-chain activity, suggesting institutional dominance with large, infrequent transactions typical of a maturing market. Conversely, CryptoQuant issued a bearish warning, projecting Bitcoin could drop to $92,000 if demand fails to rebound, citing a 60% decline in ETF flows since April, a halving in whale buying, and short-term holders selling approximately 800,000 BTC since late May. This data underscores the need for vigilance, as institutional flows and retail sentiment show conflicting signals heading into key events.

Derivatives and Liquidation Dynamics

Derivatives markets revealed nuanced positioning, with total open interest stable at $56.73 billion according to Velo data, still below the June 11 peak of $65.95 billion. Binance led with $24.5 billion in open interest, though below its previous high. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) emerged as a standout, recording an $83.4 million increase in notional open interest over 24 hours, per Laevitas. Funding rates remained broadly positive; BTC and ETH annualized rates hit 10.95% on Bybit and Hyperliquid, while Binance showed 8.98% for BTC and 10.05% for ETH. In contrast, BNB funding turned sharply negative at -22.73% on Bybit, indicating short pressure amid falling dominance. Coinglass data showed $131.89 million in 24-hour liquidations, 56% from shorts, with ETH leading at $32.2 million and BTC at $28.7 million. Liquidation clusters between $106,000 and $108,000 suggest recent price action cleared leveraged positions, hinting at measured directional conviction ahead of major expiries.

Technical Analysis and Trading Opportunities

Technically, Bitcoin reclaimed its monthly open after retesting the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), signaling potential bullish momentum. As of the latest data, BTC traded near $107,350, with resistance at the 20-day EMA around $108,000. A decisive close above this level could target the Monday high near $109,000, invalidating bearish weekly patterns and reinforcing upside potential. Support is firm at $106,000, with critical levels in the $102,000-$108,000 range. Bitcoin dominance held at 65%, near a parallel channel's upper boundary since mid-May, indicating relative strength against altcoins. Traders should monitor upcoming events like U.S. flash PMI data on June 23 and token unlocks, including Optimism's $17.34 million unlock on June 30. With ETH options open interest on Deribit hitting a yearly high of 2.58 million contracts, concentrated at $3,200 calls, and BTC options clustered between $100,000 and $110,000, strategic entries with tight stop-losses near support offer opportunities. Overall, mixed signals call for caution, emphasizing risk management in volatile conditions.