Bitcoin is undergoing a critical technical test as it retests its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) support for the third time this month, according to CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole. The initial test on June 5 saw BTC rebound from $100,500 to over $110,000, demonstrating strong bullish momentum. However, the second test on June 17 produced a shallower recovery from $103,000 to $109,000, signaling weakening buyer strength. As of the latest data, BTC trades at $105,475 (BTCUSD pair) with a 24-hour volume of 3.31566 BTC, having fluctuated between $100,057 and $105,868. This third retest comes amid visible bull fatigue, evidenced by last week's Doji candlestick pattern above $100,000. A decisive break below this SMA support could trigger accelerated selling toward $99,000, while sustained trading above $110,000 with elevated volume is required to restore bullish conviction. The outcome will likely dictate short-term market direction across major trading pairs including BTCUSDT ($105,201) and BTCUSDC ($105,300), both showing 4%+ daily gains. Simultaneously, XRP faces mounting bearish pressure as it skirts the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud at $2.15 (XRPUSD). This momentum indicator previously signaled downtrends for Dogecoin, Cardano (ADA), and Chainlink (LINK) when their prices breached cloud support. XRP's technical vulnerability is compounded by a confirmed death cross where its 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Current data shows XRPUSD at $2.1499 with 6.621% daily gains on $45,923 volume, but failure to hold the cloud could trigger a descent toward the $1.60 April low. Historical correlations suggest altcoins like ADA ($0.5808, +6.765%) and LINK ($12.92, +9.492%) often follow Bitcoin's directional cues, making BTC's SMA test pivotal for broader market sentiment. Trading opportunities exist in monitoring volume divergences at these technical levels. For BTC, a high-volume breakout above $110,000 would validate long positions targeting June highs, while a close below $103,000 could activate short strategies. XRP traders should watch for cloud breaches with confirmation from paired markets like XRPBTC (currently illiquid) and XRPUSDT ($2.1523, $443k volume). Institutional flows may amplify moves given the death cross confirmation, with historical data showing such events precede 15-20% declines when combined with cloud breakdowns. Technical indicators reveal concerning divergences despite recent price rebounds. Bitcoin's weakening bounces from the 50-day SMA coincide with diminishing volume spikes during recovery attempts. The June 5 rebound saw volume surge 40% above average, while the June 17 recovery registered only 22% above mean volume according to CoinDesk historical data. For XRP, the Ichimoku cloud breakdown risk is heightened by bearish alignment in its Tenkan-Sen (conversion line) and Kijun-Sen (base line). Cross-asset correlations show concerning patterns: DOGEBTC's 1.835% gain to 0.00000222 occurred after its early-June cloud breakdown initiated a 12% slide, while ADA and LINK's recent cloud breaches preceded 8% corrections despite current rebounds. Volume analysis shows altcoin recoveries lack conviction; LINKUSDT's 10.693% surge featured volume 30% below its 30-day average, suggesting weak participation. Critical levels to monitor include BTC's 50-day SMA at $103,000 (approximate), XRP's cloud base at $2.10, and the $1.60 support that held during April's market correction. Traders should cross-verify signals with ETHBTC pair movements (currently $0.02296, +3.145%), as Ethereum often leads altcoin reactions to Bitcoin volatility. The convergence of these technical factors suggests heightened downside risk unless volume-backed breakouts materialize immediately. FAQ What defines a death cross in technical analysis A death cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average typically the 50-day SMA crosses below a longer-term average like the 200-day SMA indicating potential long-term bearish momentum shifts and often preceding extended downtrends. Why is the Ichimoku cloud significant for XRP price action The Ichimoku cloud acts as a dynamic support resistance zone developed by Japanese analyst Goichi Hosoda Prices trading below its lower boundary signal bearish momentum acceleration as seen recently with Dogecoin and Chainlink making it a critical indicator for trend reversals. How do Bitcoin's SMA tests impact altcoin markets Bitcoin dominance creates strong intermarket correlations When BTC tests major moving averages altcoins like XRP and ADA frequently experience amplified volatility due to shared liquidity pools and leveraged trading strategies often mirroring Bitcoin's directional breakout or breakdown within 24-48 hours.