The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), has seen a significant surge following unverified reports of China lowering tariffs on certain imports from a staggering 125% to a mere 10%. While the news has sparked excitement across social media platforms, with influencers like Crypto Rover amplifying the narrative on Twitter as of May 12, 2025, at approximately 10:00 AM UTC, there is no official confirmation from credible sources such as Bloomberg, Reuters, or Chinese government announcements to substantiate this claim. Despite the lack of verification, Bitcoin's price action has been notable, climbing from $62,500 to $65,800 on the Binance BTC/USDT pair between 9:00 AM and 11:00 AM UTC on May 12, 2025, reflecting a 5.3% increase in just two hours. Trading volume on Binance spiked by 38% during this window, reaching $1.2 billion, indicating heightened retail and speculative interest. This article will analyze the market reaction, cross-market implications, and trading opportunities while maintaining a focus on verified data and cautioning against unconfirmed news. For now, the tariff reduction remains a rumor, and traders should approach the situation with skepticism until official sources confirm the development. However, the market’s response provides valuable insights into sentiment and volatility. This analysis also explores how such geopolitical news, if true, could impact Bitcoin and altcoins, as well as correlations with traditional stock markets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which often react to China-related trade policies. Given the timing, with U.S. markets opening at 1:30 PM UTC, any confirmed news could further influence cross-market dynamics. For now, let’s dive into the immediate crypto market reaction and what it means for traders looking to capitalize on Bitcoin’s momentum or hedge against potential reversals.

From a trading perspective, the unverified tariff news has triggered a clear short-term bullish sentiment in the crypto market as of May 12, 2025. Bitcoin’s rapid ascent to $65,800 on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase, recorded at 11:00 AM UTC, suggests that retail traders are piling in, likely driven by FOMO (fear of missing out). The BTC/USDT pair saw an order book imbalance with buy orders outpacing sells by a ratio of 3:1 on Binance at 10:30 AM UTC, per live data from the exchange’s public API. Altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) also followed suit, rising 4.1% from $2,900 to $3,020 on the ETH/USDT pair during the same timeframe. If the tariff reduction is confirmed, it could signal a broader risk-on sentiment, as lower trade barriers often boost global economic optimism, potentially driving institutional money into risk assets like cryptocurrencies. However, without confirmation, this rally carries significant downside risk. Traders should set tight stop-losses below key support at $63,000 for BTC/USDT, as a failure to hold this level could trigger a correction back to $60,000, especially if the news is debunked. Additionally, monitoring stock market indices like the S&P 500, which opened at 5,200 points at 1:30 PM UTC on May 12, 2025, is critical. A positive reaction in equities could reinforce Bitcoin’s upward momentum, as historical correlations show a 0.7 coefficient between BTC and S&P 500 daily returns over the past six months, according to data from CoinGecko’s market analysis tools.

Delving into technical indicators, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 1-hour chart spiked to 72 at 11:00 AM UTC on May 12, 2025, indicating overbought conditions on platforms like TradingView. This suggests a potential pullback unless buying volume sustains above $1 billion per hour, which dropped to $850 million by 12:00 PM UTC on Binance. On-chain metrics from Glassnode reveal a 15% increase in Bitcoin wallet addresses holding over 0.1 BTC during the 9:00 AM to 11:00 AM UTC window, signaling retail accumulation. Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC pair remained stable at 0.046, showing Ethereum’s relative strength against Bitcoin during this pump. Stock market correlations are also worth noting: the Nasdaq, heavily tied to tech stocks, rose 1.2% to 18,400 points by 2:00 PM UTC, potentially reflecting optimism around trade news. Institutional flows, as reported by CoinShares, showed a $200 million inflow into Bitcoin ETFs last week (data up to May 10, 2025), and a confirmed tariff cut could accelerate this trend. For crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR), which holds significant Bitcoin reserves, a 3% uptick to $1,250 per share was observed at U.S. market open on May 12, 2025, per Yahoo Finance data. Traders should watch for BTC resistance at $66,000 on the BTC/USDT pair; a breakout above this level with high volume could target $68,000, while a rejection might see a retracement to $64,000. Risk appetite remains high, but unverified news warrants caution—always prioritize confirmed data over social media hype.

In terms of stock-crypto correlation, the interplay between traditional markets and Bitcoin is evident in today’s reaction. The S&P 500’s 0.8% gain to 5,240 by 2:30 PM UTC on May 12, 2025, aligns with Bitcoin’s rally, reinforcing the notion that macro events like trade policy shifts impact both asset classes. Institutional investors often view Bitcoin as a hedge during geopolitical uncertainty, but a confirmed tariff reduction could shift capital back into equities, potentially capping BTC’s upside. Crypto ETFs like the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw a 2% volume increase to $500 million in daily trades by 2:00 PM UTC, per Grayscale’s public reports, hinting at growing mainstream interest. Trading opportunities lie in monitoring cross-market signals: a sustained S&P 500 rally above 5,250 could bolster Bitcoin’s push to $66,000, while a downturn might pressure BTC below $63,000. For now, the lack of official confirmation on China’s tariff policy keeps this rally speculative—traders must stay vigilant and adapt to breaking news.

FAQ:
What triggered Bitcoin’s price surge on May 12, 2025?
The surge was driven by unverified reports of China lowering tariffs from 125% to 10%, as shared by influencers like Crypto Rover on Twitter at 10:00 AM UTC. Bitcoin rose from $62,500 to $65,800 on Binance by 11:00 AM UTC.

Is the tariff reduction news confirmed?
No, as of the latest data on May 12, 2025, there is no official confirmation from credible sources like Bloomberg or Chinese government channels. Traders should remain cautious.

What are the key levels to watch for Bitcoin?
Resistance is at $66,000 on the BTC/USDT pair, with support at $63,000 as of 12:00 PM UTC on May 12, 2025. A breakout or rejection at these levels will dictate near-term direction.