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8/14/2026 2:12:00 PM

Bitcoin: Volatility Coils at Seasonal Lows

Bitcoin: Volatility Coils at Seasonal Lows

Bitcoin volatility sits at the lower end of its historical band in August, with BTC at $62628.1 testing support amid bearish MACD signals.

Source

Analysis

Bitcoin volatility sits extremely coiled at the lower end of its historical band this time of year, according to André Dragosch, setting the stage for mean-reversion to higher levels.

Price action shows BTC at $62628.1 testing the lower Bollinger support at $62704.75 while the EMA50 at $63913.86 acts as overhead resistance and the MACD death cross at -367.24 reinforces the bearish trend structure; with RSI(14) at 30.49 in neutral territory, this low-volatility summer lull aligns with historical August-September seasonality and points to an eventual expansion in realized moves. Bitcoin volatility analysis and BTC seasonality trends inform sharper BTC price prediction models for the coming quarters.


André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro

@Andre_Dragosch

European Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.