According to CNBC, the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish rate cut and investors still found cheer, signaling improved risk appetite despite tighter forward guidance (source: CNBC). CNBC’s framing points to a risk-on tone that typically centers trader focus on beta and duration-sensitive assets, with attention on how policy commentary shapes the sustainability of the move (source: CNBC). For crypto traders, CNBC’s report implies monitoring cross-asset drivers such as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields for spillovers into liquidity-sensitive digital assets, and aligning exposure around volatility into policy communications and data releases (source: CNBC).

According to @BullTheoryio, markets price a 95% chance of a 25 bps Fed cut, but the primary volatility driver will be liquidity signals from Powell’s tone and the Fed’s view on the economy, funding conditions, and inflation rather than the cut itself, source: @BullTheoryio. SOFR has been spiking, indicating bank funding stress and raising the odds that traders should watch for any liquidity relief from the Fed; even a hint of QE or short-term liquidity support would likely ease funding pressure, push bond yields lower, and add bullish momentum to risk assets including BTC, source: @BullTheoryio. A hawkish cut scenario (inflation not fully controlled and labor improving) risks a yield spike and a sell-off in risk assets, with the last hawkish FOMC coinciding with a sharp BTC drop, source: @BullTheoryio; a dovish cut scenario (minimal tariff impact on inflation and a weak labor market) would likely send yields down, lift liquidity expectations, and support a crypto pump, with dovish plus liquidity support turning strongly bullish, dovish only implying a smaller pump, a hawkish cut triggering an October-like sell-off, and no liquidity help keeping markets in sideways action, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @BullTheoryio, markets have priced a 95% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, so the real volatility driver will be liquidity signals from Powell’s tone and the Fed’s view on the economy, funding conditions, and inflation (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, SOFR has been spiking, indicating bank funding stress and raising expectations for some liquidity relief from the Fed (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, any hint of QE or short-term liquidity support would likely be immediately bullish by easing funding pressure, pushing bond yields lower, and boosting risk assets including crypto (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, a hawkish cut (inflation not fully controlled, labor improving) risks higher yields and a risk-asset sell-off, while a dovish cut (minimal tariff impact, weak labor) should lower yields and lift crypto (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, the roadmap is: dovish plus liquidity support equals strong bullish impulse; dovish only equals a small pump; hawkish cut risks a sell-off similar to October; no liquidity help implies sideways action, with BTC’s last hawkish-FOMC reaction serving as a cautionary guide (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. Treasury recorded a $284.4 billion federal budget deficit in October, the worst opening month to any fiscal year on record. According to @KobeissiLetter, this surpasses the previous October record deficit of $284.1 billion set in 2020 during the pandemic response. According to @KobeissiLetter, government spending rose 18% year over year in October. According to @KobeissiLetter, the record deficit reading is a key macro input that traders are watching across Treasury issuance, yields, the U.S. dollar, and liquidity-sensitive risk assets including BTC and ETH.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. Treasury posted a 345 billion budget deficit in August 2025, the largest monthly deficit of 2025 and the second-worst August on record, rising from July’s 291 billion (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Sep 12, 2025). Government spending surged to 689 billion for the month, pushing the fiscal year 2025 deficit to 1.97 trillion through eleven months, on track to be the third-largest annual shortfall after 2020 and 2021 (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Sep 12, 2025). The author characterizes this as an accelerating deficit spending spiral, a macro backdrop traders monitor when assessing Treasury supply, bond yields, U.S. dollar direction, and crypto risk sentiment in assets such as BTC and ETH (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Sep 12, 2025).

According to Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst), bond yields have remained steady following the May CPI print, indicating that the bond market does not anticipate a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near future (source: Twitter, June 11, 2025). This signals ongoing tight monetary policy, which historically puts pressure on risk assets including cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH. Crypto traders should factor in the likelihood of sustained higher yields, which may limit bullish momentum in the near term.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 10-Year Treasury Note yield has climbed back above 4.50% due to further delays in expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, approaching levels last seen during the weak 20-Year Bond Auction on May 21st (source: @KobeissiLetter, June 6, 2025). This increase in yields signals heightened risk-off sentiment and stronger dollar positioning, which historically puts downward pressure on Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies as risk assets become less attractive. Traders should monitor treasury yields closely, as sustained high yields could trigger further crypto market volatility and potential capital outflows.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the new US spending bill will increase national debt by approximately $3 trillion over the next decade, even after 'safety net' budget cuts, with total debt impact reaching close to $5 trillion by 2035 due to rising interest costs (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 3, 2025). This significant surge in government debt and projected higher interest rates may drive increased interest in alternative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as traders seek inflation hedges, potentially bolstering crypto market demand and volatility. Traders should closely monitor US fiscal policy shifts and bond yields, as these factors could trigger capital flows into digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Court of International Trade has struck down tariffs, leading to an immediate rise in the 10-year Treasury note yield above 4.50% (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 29, 2025). This sharp increase in yields reflects heightened uncertainty in traditional markets, which could drive risk capital into the cryptocurrency sector as investors seek alternative assets. Traders should monitor how sustained high yields may affect liquidity flows and Bitcoin price momentum, as rising yields often correlate with volatility in both equities and crypto markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US 2-year economic growth expectations have dropped at their fastest rate in three years since March, while the 10-year real note yield has climbed approximately 40 basis points to 2.2% (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 27, 2025). This divergence highlights tightening financial conditions and increased risk aversion in traditional markets, which historically have led to higher volatility and capital flows into alternative assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Crypto traders should closely monitor these macro trends, as shifts in US bond yields and economic outlooks often trigger significant movements in digital asset prices.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, persistent high interest rates and the Federal Reserve's refusal to cut rates are pushing US 10-year Treasury yields toward 5 percent. Trade deals are also contributing to this upward pressure on yields. The Kobeissi Letter warns that unless there is a change in monetary policy or trade dynamics, the 10Y Note Yield could reach 5 percent. For cryptocurrency traders, rising yields typically signal tighter liquidity and higher opportunity costs, which can lead to increased volatility and downward pressure on digital asset prices. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, May 26, 2025.

According to Edward Dowd, concerns are rising over who will purchase US Treasuries as demand from traditional buyers like foreign central banks has waned in 2025 (source: Edward Dowd on Twitter, May 24, 2025). This shift could lead to higher yields and volatility in the bond market, potentially encouraging institutional investors to diversify into alternative assets, such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Traders should monitor Treasury auction results and institutional fund flows, as reduced confidence in US government debt may drive further adoption of digital assets as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty (source: Edward Dowd, Twitter).

According to Edward Dowd, shelter costs make up 36% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and key housing market indicators are rolling over, strengthening the case for a recession led by the housing sector compared to his previous analysis on January 9th (source: Edward Dowd, Twitter, May 23, 2025). The recent spike in bond yields, attributed to the 'big beautiful bill,' has pushed real yields higher, which typically leads to tighter financial conditions and reduced risk appetite. For crypto traders, these macroeconomic pressures suggest increased volatility in both traditional and digital asset markets, as risk-off sentiment could drive capital flows out of equities and into defensive or alternative assets like Bitcoin and stablecoins. Monitoring housing data and yield movements is crucial for anticipating further crypto market reactions.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, as the US-China trade war intensified, former President Trump expected Fed Chair Powell to lower interest rates to ease bond market pressure while tariffs increased. However, the Federal Reserve has been reluctant to cut rates, resulting in rising bond yields. This shift has forced Trump to reconsider his economic strategy. For crypto traders, the rising yields and lack of monetary stimulus increase market uncertainty and can lead to higher volatility for Bitcoin and altcoins as investors seek alternative assets amid traditional market stress (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 23, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, bond yields surged sharply ahead of the April 9th tariff pause as the unwinding of the basis trade accelerated. Former President Trump implemented a 90-day tariff pause in direct response to the spike in rates, and on April 10th, he acknowledged monitoring the bond market closely. This interest rate-driven policy move heightened volatility across global markets, with significant spillover effects on cryptocurrency trading as risk sentiment shifted rapidly. Crypto traders observed increased correlations between digital assets and traditional markets during this period, highlighting the need for active risk management strategies. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 23, 2025)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, bond yields surged sharply leading up to the April 9th tariff pause as the basis trade unwound, prompting former President Trump to announce a 90-day tariff pause amid rising rates. On April 10th, Trump acknowledged monitoring the bond market, confirming the move was driven by interest rate concerns (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 23, 2025). For crypto traders, these rapid shifts in traditional markets highlight the growing interplay between macroeconomic policy decisions and cryptocurrency price volatility, especially as traders increasingly use crypto as a hedge against interest rate uncertainty.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, as the US-China trade war intensified, former President Trump expected Federal Reserve Chair Powell to cut interest rates, aiming to stabilize the bond market while implementing higher tariffs. However, with the Fed remaining hesitant to reduce rates, bond yields have continued to rise, forcing Trump to alter his economic strategy (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 23, 2025). This shift in US monetary policy and rising yields could increase volatility in both traditional and crypto markets, as investors seek alternative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum to hedge against uncertain macroeconomic conditions.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, recent weeks have seen bond yields rise despite the usual 'trade deal' headlines, due to a shift in market sentiment with lower recession fears and heightened inflation expectations. This breakdown in typical market responses suggests that trade war tensions are resurfacing, which has historically driven volatility across global financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. Traders should monitor yield movements and trade war developments closely, as these factors can trigger liquidity shifts and risk-off sentiment in the crypto sector (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 23, 2025).

According to @KobeissiLetter, a notable discrepancy was observed between rising bond yields and equity prices last week. The S&P 500 surged towards the 5950 level before falling by 200 points, as highlighted in their recent premium member update (source: @KobeissiLetter on Twitter). For crypto traders, this sharp equity correction amid higher yields signals increased market volatility and potential liquidity shifts from equities to digital assets, impacting Bitcoin and altcoin price action.

According to @KobeissiLetter, a notable discrepancy was observed last week between higher bond yields and rising equity prices. Following their update to premium members as the S&P 500 approached 5950, the index has since fallen by 200 points. This correction highlights increasing market volatility tied to yield movements, which often triggers risk-off sentiment in both stock and cryptocurrency markets. Crypto traders should monitor bond yield trends as they can signal liquidity shifts impacting Bitcoin and altcoin prices (Source: @KobeissiLetter).