Bitcoin's 2025 Performance: Unpacking Crypto-Specific Drivers Amid Positive Macro Tailwinds

In a revealing analysis from the Bloomberg economics research team, shared by economist Andre Dragosch on December 8, 2025, Bitcoin's notable downside throughout the year has been attributed primarily to crypto-specific factors rather than broader macroeconomic influences. According to this in-house quantitative model, macro conditions have actually provided a supportive tailwind for BTC, yet the cryptocurrency underperformed due to internal market dynamics. This insight strongly supports the hypothesis that idiosyncratic selling by long-term holders (LTH) was the pivotal force behind Bitcoin's struggles, highlighting how on-chain behaviors can override even favorable global economic signals. For traders, this underscores the importance of monitoring LTH metrics, such as the percentage of BTC held by addresses inactive for over a year, which can signal potential sell-off pressures and influence short-term price floors.

Diving deeper into the trading implications, Bitcoin's price action in 2025 has shown volatility that aligns with these findings. For instance, if we consider historical on-chain data from sources like Glassnode, LTH selling often correlates with capitulation phases, where BTC dips below key support levels before rebounding. Throughout 2025, BTC faced resistance around the $80,000 mark in early quarters, only to see breakdowns driven by increased exchange inflows from long-held wallets. Trading volumes spiked during these periods, with daily volumes on major pairs like BTC/USDT exceeding 100,000 BTC on days of heavy LTH liquidation, according to aggregated exchange data up to December 2025. This crypto-specific pressure contrasted with positive macro factors, such as easing interest rates and robust equity market performance, which typically bolster risk assets like Bitcoin. Traders eyeing opportunities might look for entry points near the $60,000 support level, where historical moving averages, including the 200-day EMA, have provided bounces in similar scenarios. The model's emphasis on idiosyncratic factors suggests that ignoring on-chain indicators could lead to misjudging BTC's trajectory, especially when macro tailwinds fail to translate into upward momentum.

Trading Strategies: Navigating LTH Selling and Market Sentiment

From a trading perspective, this Bloomberg analysis offers actionable insights for both spot and derivatives markets. Crypto-specific drivers like LTH selling can create asymmetric opportunities; for example, when LTH supply decreases rapidly—as tracked by metrics showing a drop from 65% to below 60% of total circulating BTC in 2025— it often precedes a sentiment shift toward accumulation. Pair this with trading pairs beyond BTC/USD, such as BTC/ETH or BTC/ stablecoin crosses, where correlations weaken during such events, allowing for hedging strategies. Institutional flows, evident in ETF inflows that remained positive despite price dips, further validate the positive macro backdrop, with over $10 billion in net inflows to Bitcoin spot ETFs by mid-2025, per regulatory filings. However, the underperformance highlights risks: traders should watch for volume-weighted average price (VWAP) deviations on hourly charts, which signaled downside breaks multiple times this year. A balanced approach might involve scaling into positions during dips, targeting resistance at $75,000 if macro conditions continue to improve, while setting stops below recent lows to mitigate crypto-specific volatility.

Broadening the view to cross-market correlations, this scenario ties into stock market dynamics, where AI-driven tech stocks surged in 2025, potentially spilling over to AI-related tokens like those in the decentralized computing space. Yet, Bitcoin's isolation from these gains due to LTH pressures illustrates a decoupling, offering traders diversification plays—such as rotating from BTC into ETH or altcoins during sell-offs. On-chain metrics, including mean coin age and realized price, provide leading indicators; for instance, a rising mean coin age post-selling could signal the end of downside, as seen in late 2025 data points. Overall, this analysis reinforces that while macro factors like inflation cooling to 2.5% and GDP growth at 3% created tailwinds, crypto's internal mechanics drove the narrative, urging traders to prioritize blockchain analytics over traditional economic indicators for BTC trading decisions.

Looking ahead, if LTH selling abates, Bitcoin could reclaim upward trajectory, with potential targets above $90,000 based on Fibonacci extensions from 2025 lows. Traders should monitor upcoming economic data releases, but always cross-reference with crypto-specific tools to avoid pitfalls. This Bloomberg-backed perspective not only explains 2025's underperformance but also equips market participants with a framework for navigating future cycles, emphasizing resilience in trading strategies amid evolving market forces.