In the ever-volatile world of cryptocurrency trading, a recent exchange between prominent analysts has sparked intense debate about Bitcoin's (BTC) potential trajectory in the next bear market. On August 12, 2025, economist André Dragosch, PhD, took to Twitter to challenge fellow analyst Henrik Zeberg, dismissing the idea that BTC could retrace to as low as $4,000. Dragosch's tweet, which read, "Imagine thinking BTC will retrace to 4k in the next bear market... You must be new here," highlights a growing divide in market sentiment. This commentary comes at a time when Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience, trading well above historical lows despite economic uncertainties. For traders, this underscores the importance of understanding long-term cycles and avoiding overly pessimistic forecasts that ignore BTC's proven track record of recovery.

Analyzing BTC's Historical Support Levels and Bear Market Patterns

To contextualize this debate, let's examine Bitcoin's historical bear market behaviors with a focus on trading opportunities. During the 2018 bear market, BTC plummeted from a high of around $20,000 to a low of approximately $3,200 in December 2018, according to data from major exchanges. This represented an 84% drawdown from its peak. Similarly, in the 2022 downturn, influenced by events like the Terra-Luna collapse and FTX fallout, BTC fell from $69,000 in November 2021 to about $15,500 in November 2022—a 77% drop. These patterns suggest that while severe corrections occur, retracements to extreme lows like $4,000 in future cycles seem improbable given BTC's increasing institutional adoption and halving events that historically bolster price floors. Traders should monitor key support levels: currently, BTC has strong support around $50,000-$55,000 based on recent consolidations, with resistance at $70,000. If a bear market ensues, volume analysis from on-chain metrics, such as those provided by Glassnode, indicates that accumulation phases often begin at 60-70% drawdowns, not the 95%+ implied by a $4,000 target from current levels.

From a technical trading perspective, tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Averages offer insights into potential reversals. As of mid-2025, BTC's weekly RSI hovers around 55, signaling neutral to bullish momentum, far from the oversold conditions (below 30) seen in past bear bottoms. Traders eyeing short positions might consider the 200-day moving average, which BTC has respected as dynamic support, currently near $45,000. However, Dragosch's skepticism aligns with optimistic views, suggesting that any dip could present buying opportunities rather than a collapse. Institutional flows, evidenced by spot Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $10 billion in Q2 2025 per SEC filings, further support this narrative, potentially capping downside risks and creating asymmetric upside for long-term holders.

Trading Strategies Amid Bear Market Speculation

For active traders, this analyst spat offers actionable strategies. Consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into BTC during pullbacks, targeting entries below $50,000 with stop-losses at $40,000 to mitigate risks. Options trading on platforms like Deribit shows increased call buying for strikes above $80,000 expiring in December 2025, reflecting bullish sentiment despite bearish warnings. On-chain data reveals that Bitcoin's realized price—a metric averaging the cost basis of all coins—stands at about $25,000 as of August 2025, providing a psychological floor. Correlations with stock markets, such as the S&P 500, remain relevant; a 10% equity drop could pressure BTC by 15-20%, but AI-driven tech rallies might counter this, boosting AI-related tokens like FET and benefiting BTC indirectly through ecosystem growth.

Ultimately, while Zeberg's $4,000 prediction may fuel fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), seasoned traders recognize BTC's maturation. With trading volumes averaging $30 billion daily on Binance in recent weeks, liquidity supports quick rebounds. Focus on metrics like the Puell Multiple, which at 1.2 indicates miners are not overly stressed, reducing sell-off risks. This debate reminds us that in crypto trading, blending fundamental analysis with technical indicators yields the best results, potentially turning bearish forecasts into profitable dip-buying moments.