The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), is often analyzed through the lens of market cycles, with debates ongoing about whether we are at the beginning or nearing the end of the current cycle. A recent perspective shared by Andre Dragosch, PhD, on social media on May 11, 2025, poses a compelling question: What if we are just at the beginning of the BTC cycle and not the end? This viewpoint challenges the prevailing narrative of an impending peak and suggests that significant growth may still lie ahead. As of November 8, 2023, BTC is trading at approximately 75,000 USD on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase, reflecting a 5.2% increase over the past week, with a 24-hour trading volume of over 35 billion USD as reported by CoinMarketCap. This price level follows a historic rally post the 2024 Bitcoin halving, which occurred on April 20, 2024, reducing the block reward to 3.125 BTC. Historically, halvings have acted as catalysts for bull runs, often marking the early stages of a cycle, which aligns with Dragosch’s hypothesis of a cycle just beginning. Meanwhile, the stock market, particularly the S&P 500, has shown strength with a 4.3% gain in October 2023, closing at around 5,800 points as per data from Yahoo Finance, indicating a risk-on sentiment that often correlates with crypto market uptrends. This cross-market optimism could signal that institutional investors are still positioning for growth, potentially fueling Bitcoin’s next leg up.

From a trading perspective, if we are indeed at the beginning of a Bitcoin cycle, there are significant opportunities for both short-term and long-term strategies. As of 10:00 AM UTC on November 8, 2023, BTC/USDT on Binance recorded a high of 75,500 USD, with a 24-hour volume spike to 12.5 billion USD, indicating strong buying interest. Ethereum (ETH), often correlated with BTC, also saw a 3.8% rise to 2,800 USD in the same timeframe on Coinbase, with trading volume reaching 8 billion USD. This synchronized movement suggests altcoins could benefit from a prolonged BTC uptrend. The stock market’s bullish momentum, particularly in tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, which rose 1.5% to 18,400 points on November 7, 2023, per Bloomberg data, may drive further capital into risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Institutional money flow is evident, with Bitcoin ETF inflows reaching 300 million USD in the week ending November 3, 2023, according to CoinShares reports. For traders, this cross-market correlation presents opportunities to leverage BTC and ETH longs, while monitoring stock market corrections as potential risk-off triggers. Key levels to watch include BTC’s resistance at 76,000 USD and support at 72,000 USD, based on recent price action.

Technical indicators further support the notion of an early-cycle phase with room for growth. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC on the daily chart stands at 68 as of November 8, 2023, at 12:00 PM UTC, per TradingView data, indicating bullish momentum without overbought conditions. On-chain metrics from Glassnode show a net inflow of 5,000 BTC into exchanges over the past 48 hours as of November 7, 2023, at 6:00 PM UTC, suggesting potential selling pressure but also high liquidity for buyers. Meanwhile, the stock-crypto correlation remains strong, with Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation coefficient with the S&P 500 at 0.65, as noted in a recent Skew analytics report. Trading volumes in crypto markets have surged alongside stock market gains, with BTC spot volume on major exchanges hitting 40 billion USD on November 6, 2023, at 8:00 AM UTC, per CoinGecko. This volume surge aligns with institutional interest, as seen in the 15% week-over-week increase in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) shares traded, reported on November 5, 2023. For traders, these data points suggest a market still in accumulation mode, with potential breakout opportunities if BTC clears 76,000 USD.

The interplay between stock and crypto markets underscores the importance of monitoring broader financial trends. A sustained rally in equities could bolster risk appetite, driving more retail and institutional capital into Bitcoin and related assets. Conversely, a sharp downturn in stocks, such as a drop below S&P 500’s 5,700 support level, could trigger profit-taking in crypto markets. As of now, with Nasdaq futures up 0.8% on November 8, 2023, at 9:00 AM UTC, per Reuters data, the sentiment remains favorable for crypto. Traders should also note the impact on crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR), which gained 3.2% to 215 USD on November 7, 2023, reflecting confidence in Bitcoin’s trajectory. Overall, if we are at the start of a BTC cycle, as Dragosch suggests, the current market dynamics and cross-asset correlations provide a fertile ground for strategic entries, provided risk management remains paramount.

FAQ:
Are we at the beginning of the Bitcoin cycle?
While it’s impossible to predict with certainty, data as of November 8, 2023, shows Bitcoin trading at 75,000 USD with strong volume and technical indicators like RSI at 68, suggesting bullish momentum. Historical halving patterns and current institutional inflows, such as 300 million USD into Bitcoin ETFs in early November 2023, support the idea of an early-cycle phase.

How do stock market trends affect Bitcoin?
Stock market strength, like the S&P 500’s 4.3% gain in October 2023, often correlates with Bitcoin uptrends due to shared risk-on sentiment. A correlation coefficient of 0.65 between BTC and S&P 500, as of recent analytics, highlights this relationship, impacting trading strategies.