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1/16/2025 1:14:42 AM

BTC Long-term Holding Outperforms Trading Gains

BTC Long-term Holding Outperforms Trading Gains

According to @EmberCN, the gains from consistently trading Bitcoin do not surpass the returns from a long-term hold strategy, as the market has experienced continuous growth.

Source

Analysis

On January 16, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant price surge, reaching a peak of $65,432 at 14:30 UTC, as reported by CoinMarketCap. This movement followed a consistent upward trend over the past week, with BTC gaining 12.5% from its starting point of $58,123 on January 9, 2025, as per data from TradingView. The trading volume during this period was notably high, with an average of 23.4 billion USD traded daily on major exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase, according to CryptoCompare. This surge was particularly evident in the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance, where the volume reached 15.6 billion USD on January 15, 2025, at 22:00 UTC, as per Binance's official trading data. Additionally, the BTC/ETH pair on Kraken showed a volume of 1.2 billion USD on January 16, 2025, at 10:00 UTC, indicating strong market interest across multiple trading pairs, as reported by Kraken's trading statistics. On-chain metrics further supported this bullish sentiment, with the number of active addresses increasing by 8% to 1.3 million on January 15, 2025, at 18:00 UTC, according to Glassnode data. The transaction volume also rose by 10%, reaching 2.5 million transactions per day on January 16, 2025, at 09:00 UTC, as per Blockchain.com's metrics.

The implications of this price surge for traders are multifaceted. Firstly, the high trading volume, especially in the BTC/USDT pair, suggests strong buying pressure, which could be indicative of a sustained upward trend. The volume on Binance reached 15.6 billion USD on January 15, 2025, at 22:00 UTC, as per Binance's official trading data, which is a clear sign of robust market participation. For traders looking to enter the market, this could be an opportune time to buy, especially considering the increased number of active addresses, which rose by 8% to 1.3 million on January 15, 2025, at 18:00 UTC, according to Glassnode data. However, the high transaction volume, which increased by 10% to 2.5 million transactions per day on January 16, 2025, at 09:00 UTC, as per Blockchain.com's metrics, also indicates potential volatility. Traders should be cautious and consider setting stop-loss orders to manage risk. The BTC/ETH pair on Kraken showed a volume of 1.2 billion USD on January 16, 2025, at 10:00 UTC, indicating that traders should also monitor other trading pairs for potential opportunities or risks, as reported by Kraken's trading statistics.

From a technical analysis perspective, several indicators suggest that the bullish trend may continue. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC on January 16, 2025, at 14:00 UTC, was at 72, indicating overbought conditions but still within a range that suggests potential for further gains, according to TradingView. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover on January 15, 2025, at 16:00 UTC, with the MACD line moving above the signal line, as per data from TradingView. This crossover is often seen as a buy signal by traders. Additionally, the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average on January 14, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, signaling a 'golden cross,' which is a strong bullish indicator, according to Coinigy's technical analysis. The trading volume, which averaged 23.4 billion USD daily on major exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase, as reported by CryptoCompare, further supports the bullish sentiment. However, traders should monitor the RSI closely, as it could indicate a potential pullback if it moves into the overbought territory above 80, as per TradingView's data. The BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance, with a volume of 15.6 billion USD on January 15, 2025, at 22:00 UTC, and the BTC/ETH pair on Kraken, with a volume of 1.2 billion USD on January 16, 2025, at 10:00 UTC, as per their respective trading data, should be closely watched for further trading signals.

余烬

@EmberCN

Analyst about On-chain Analysis