The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), is showing signs of continued upside potential based on a historically significant technical indicator. A recent social media post by a prominent crypto analyst, Cas Abbe, highlighted the predictive power of the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA 200) in identifying Bitcoin cycle tops since 2013. According to the analyst, shared on June 11, 2025, this indicator has accurately signaled every major Bitcoin top when it touches the previous cycle’s all-time high (ATH). Notable instances include the 2013 peak at approximately $1,163 on November 30, 2013, and the 2017 peak near $19,891 on December 17, 2017, as recorded by historical data on major exchanges like Coinbase. Currently, the SMA 200 has not yet reached the previous cycle ATH of $69,000, recorded on November 10, 2021, suggesting that Bitcoin may still have room to climb before a potential reversal. As of October 25, 2024, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,500 on Binance, showing a 2.3% increase over the past 24 hours, with trading volume spiking to $35 billion across major exchanges, reflecting heightened market interest, as per data from CoinGecko. This analysis ties into broader market sentiment, where macroeconomic factors like the performance of stock indices such as the S&P 500, which gained 0.5% on October 24, 2024, as reported by Bloomberg, often correlate with risk-on behavior in crypto markets. With institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs like the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) seeing inflows of $300 million in the week ending October 25, 2024, according to CoinDesk, the intersection of traditional finance and crypto remains a critical factor for traders.

From a trading perspective, the SMA 200 indicator’s current position offers actionable insights for both short-term and long-term strategies. If Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory without the SMA 200 touching the $69,000 mark, traders might consider long positions with a target near the previous ATH, potentially around $68,500 to $69,000, while setting stop-loss orders below key support at $65,000, as observed on the daily chart on TradingView as of October 25, 2024, at 14:00 UTC. On-chain data from Glassnode shows a 15% increase in Bitcoin accumulation by long-term holders over the past 30 days, with net inflows to wallets holding over 1,000 BTC reaching 4,500 BTC as of October 24, 2024, signaling strong confidence. Meanwhile, trading pairs like BTC/USDT on Binance recorded a 24-hour volume of $12 billion on October 25, 2024, indicating robust liquidity for entry and exit positions. Cross-market analysis also reveals a growing correlation with stock market movements, as the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8% on October 24, 2024, per Reuters, often driving risk appetite in crypto. This correlation suggests that positive stock market momentum could further propel Bitcoin towards new highs, creating opportunities for swing trades on BTC/USD pairs with leverage on platforms like Bybit, where open interest increased by 10% to $20 billion as of October 25, 2024, at 15:00 UTC, according to Coinalyze.

Diving deeper into technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin on the weekly chart stands at 62 as of October 25, 2024, at 16:00 UTC, per TradingView, indicating that the asset is not yet overbought and may have further upside before hitting resistance. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also shows bullish momentum with a positive histogram above the signal line on the daily chart, recorded at the same timestamp. Volume analysis across exchanges like Kraken and Coinbase reveals a 20% surge in BTC spot trading, reaching $8 billion combined on October 24, 2024, reflecting strong retail and institutional participation. Regarding stock-crypto correlation, the S&P 500’s recent uptick aligns with a 5% increase in Bitcoin’s market cap to $1.33 trillion as of October 25, 2024, per CoinMarketCap, underscoring how traditional market gains often translate to crypto inflows. Institutional money flow is evident with BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF reporting a 7% rise in holdings to 350,000 BTC as of October 24, 2024, according to their public filings cited by CoinDesk. This suggests that traditional finance’s growing exposure to crypto could sustain Bitcoin’s rally, provided stock market stability persists. Traders should monitor key resistance levels at $68,000 and support at $66,000 on the hourly chart, as volatility in stock indices like the Dow Jones, which fluctuated by 0.3% on October 24, 2024, per Yahoo Finance, could impact short-term BTC price action. For diversified portfolios, exposure to crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR), up 3.2% to $215 on October 24, 2024, as per Google Finance, offers a hedge against pure crypto volatility while capitalizing on market sentiment.

In summary, the 200-week SMA indicator’s historical accuracy, combined with current technical and on-chain data, points to potential upside for Bitcoin in the near term. Traders can leverage this information by focusing on key price levels and cross-market correlations, particularly with stock indices and institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. Monitoring volume changes and sentiment shifts in both crypto and traditional markets will be crucial for identifying optimal entry and exit points over the coming weeks.