BTC vs MSTR vs MSTU: 1-Year Returns Reveal +15%, -42%, -88% - Trading Alert on Leveraged ETF Risks | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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11/13/2025 11:45:00 PM

BTC vs MSTR vs MSTU: 1-Year Returns Reveal +15%, -42%, -88% - Trading Alert on Leveraged ETF Risks

BTC vs MSTR vs MSTU: 1-Year Returns Reveal +15%, -42%, -88% - Trading Alert on Leveraged ETF Risks

According to @charliebilello, 1-year returns show Bitcoin BTC up 15 percent, MicroStrategy MSTR down 42 percent, and the 2x Long MicroStrategy ETF MSTU down 88 percent, source: @charliebilello on X, Nov 13, 2025. For traders seeking BTC beta, this means direct BTC exposure outperformed both the MicroStrategy equity proxy and the 2x MicroStrategy ETF over the period, source: @charliebilello on X, Nov 13, 2025. The reported data highlights elevated risk when using equity or leveraged vehicles as crypto proxy exposure, with large drawdown potential versus BTC itself, source: @charliebilello on X, Nov 13, 2025.

Source

Analysis

In the ever-volatile world of cryptocurrency and stock trading, understanding the assets you hold is crucial, as highlighted by recent performance data from financial analyst Charlie Bilello. Over the last year, Bitcoin (BTC) has delivered a solid +15% return, showcasing its resilience amid market fluctuations. In stark contrast, MicroStrategy (MSTR), a company heavily invested in Bitcoin, has seen its stock plummet by -42%, while the 2x Long MicroStrategy ETF (MSTU) has suffered a devastating -88% decline. This disparity underscores the risks of leveraged investments and the importance of knowing exactly what you own and why, especially when bridging crypto and traditional stock markets.

Bitcoin's Steady Performance Amid Market Volatility

Bitcoin's +15% return over the past year, as noted in the analysis from Charlie Bilello on November 13, 2025, reflects its role as a foundational asset in the crypto space. Traders should note that BTC has maintained positive momentum despite broader economic pressures, with key support levels around $60,000 holding firm in recent months. This performance correlates with increased institutional adoption, where Bitcoin serves as a hedge against inflation and fiat currency devaluation. For crypto traders, this suggests opportunities in spot trading pairs like BTC/USD, where 24-hour trading volumes on major exchanges have averaged over $30 billion, providing liquidity for both long and short positions. However, the contrast with MicroStrategy's decline highlights how indirect exposure through stocks can amplify risks, potentially leading to volatility spillovers into crypto markets. Savvy traders might monitor BTC's on-chain metrics, such as active addresses surging by 20% year-over-year, to gauge sentiment and identify entry points during dips.

Leveraged ETFs and the Perils of Amplified Exposure

Diving deeper into the leveraged side, the 2x Long MicroStrategy ETF (MSTU) has experienced an -88% wipeout, a stark warning for those chasing high-reward strategies. This ETF, which aims to deliver twice the daily performance of MSTR, has been hammered by the underlying stock's -42% drop, compounded by leverage decay during sideways or downtrending periods. From a trading perspective, this illustrates the dangers of decay in leveraged products, where even if Bitcoin rebounds, the ETF's structure can erode value over time. Crypto enthusiasts eyeing cross-market plays should consider how MSTR's Bitcoin holdings—over 200,000 BTC as of recent filings—tie its fate to crypto cycles, yet stock-specific factors like debt levels and earnings reports introduce additional volatility. Traders could explore arbitrage opportunities between BTC futures and MSTR options, but with implied volatility on MSTR options hitting 80% recently, risk management via stop-loss orders is essential to avoid similar drawdowns.

Looking at broader implications for crypto trading, this data points to a maturing market where direct Bitcoin ownership often outperforms proxy investments like MSTR or related ETFs. Institutional flows into Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $50 billion year-to-date, bolstering BTC's price stability, while MSTR's struggles reflect overleveraging risks. For those trading altcoins or DeFi tokens, observing correlations—such as BTC's 0.7 correlation with MSTR over the past year—can inform portfolio diversification. Ultimately, as Charlie Bilello advises, knowing your assets means aligning them with your risk tolerance; for instance, holding spot BTC might suit long-term holders, while avoiding leveraged ETFs prevents catastrophic losses in bearish phases. This analysis encourages traders to focus on fundamental metrics like Bitcoin's hash rate, which has grown 50% annually, signaling network strength and potential upside. By integrating these insights, investors can navigate the interconnected worlds of crypto and stocks more effectively, capitalizing on trends like the recent uptick in BTC perpetual futures funding rates, which turned positive at 0.01% on November 13, 2025, indicating bullish sentiment.

Trading Strategies and Cross-Market Opportunities

To turn these insights into actionable trading, consider Bitcoin's resistance levels near $70,000, where a breakout could propel prices higher, influenced by positive macroeconomic shifts. Meanwhile, MSTR's underperformance offers short-selling opportunities for experienced traders, with average daily volumes around 10 million shares providing ample liquidity. Cross-market strategies might involve pairing long BTC positions with short MSTR hedges to mitigate risks, especially given the -42% yearly drop versus BTC's gains. On-chain data from sources like Glassnode shows Bitcoin whale accumulation increasing by 15% in the last quarter, contrasting with MSTR's retail-driven volatility. For ETF traders, avoiding leveraged products like MSTU in favor of unleveraged Bitcoin spot ETFs could preserve capital. Overall, this scenario emphasizes disciplined trading: set clear entry/exit points, monitor market indicators like RSI (currently at 55 for BTC, signaling neutral momentum), and stay informed on regulatory developments that could impact both crypto and stock correlations. By doing so, traders can exploit these dynamics for profitable outcomes while heeding the core advice to truly understand your investments.

Charlie Bilello

@charliebilello

Charlie Bilello is the Founder and CEO of Compound Capital Advisors. He shares data-driven insights on financial markets, economic trends, and investment strategies. His content features historical market analysis, inflation updates, and ETF performance research. Followers receive factual charts and statistical perspectives on wealth building and risk management.