According to Adam Back, a model by Daniele argues the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle is different this time, with a flat bubble detection metric and a thesis that BTC grinds higher without a bear market and with smaller pullbacks than prior cycles. Source: Adam Back on X, Nov 16, 2025. For trading, this thesis favors a trend-following bias and buying shallow dips in BTC while monitoring the bubble metric for any spike that could signal a regime change. Source: Adam Back on X, Nov 16, 2025.