According to @caprioleio, Grok and GPT can deliver outlandishly wrong answers in some areas, making it essential to question outputs down to the root cause before relying on them for decisions (Source: Charles Edwards on X, Sep 29, 2025). According to @caprioleio, rising blind trust in AI risks eroding independent thinking, which he says is crucial to avoid face-value errors in research and analysis (Source: Charles Edwards on X, Sep 29, 2025). According to @caprioleio, nothing great is achieved by taking the easy path, reinforcing the need for due diligence and verification when incorporating AI into market workflows (Source: Charles Edwards on X, Sep 29, 2025).

According to @caprioleio, McKinsey’s Quantum Monitor 2025 indicates quantum computing industry revenues are set to surpass $1 billion in 2025 with annual growth above 40% and $54 billion in global commitments, underscoring accelerating timelines that crypto markets must track for security risk pricing. Source: McKinsey Quantum Monitor 2025; @caprioleio. @caprioleio highlights a 4–5 year path to multi-thousand logical qubits and frames a Q-Day window of 2–10 years, asserting this scale would be sufficient to threaten Bitcoin’s ECC-based security. Source: @caprioleio. Bitcoin relies on ECDSA over secp256k1, and sufficiently large fault-tolerant quantum computers running Shor’s algorithm can compute elliptic-curve discrete logarithms, enabling private-key recovery from public keys in principle. Source: NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography (2024) overview; NIST Computer Security Resource Center. Academic resource estimates suggest low-thousands logical qubits are in the ballpark needed to attack 256-bit ECC, aligning with the risk threshold cited by the author. Source: Roetteler, Naehrig, Svore, Lauter (Microsoft Research, 2017); Gidney and Ekerå (2019, Quantum). If ECC were broken, UTXOs that reveal public keys (e.g., address reuse or legacy pay-to-pubkey outputs) are first at risk, which is directly relevant for assessing BTC key-exposure on-chain. Source: Bitcoin Wiki – Address reuse; Bitcoin protocol documentation. NIST finalized initial post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024 (including CRYSTALS-Kyber and CRYSTALS-Dilithium), providing a migration path that security-focused market participants can monitor against the author’s Q-Day window. Source: NIST PQC standards announcement 2024; NIST CSRC.

According to @caprioleio, Bitcoin must be upgraded to be quantum-proof by 2026, with a warning of severe consequences if no upgrade occurs. Source: https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1972473521730462153 The post sets a concrete 2026 timeline for quantum risk management around BTC’s signature schemes, signaling a near-term governance and security focus for market participants. Source: https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1972473521730462153 Bitcoin’s current signatures use ECDSA and Schnorr (BIP340) over secp256k1, both based on the discrete logarithm problem that Shor’s algorithm would break on a sufficiently large fault-tolerant quantum computer, underscoring why post-quantum migration is being standardized globally. Source: https://developer.bitcoin.org/devglossary.html#term-ecdsa https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0340.mediawiki https://csrc.nist.gov/projects/post-quantum-cryptography

According to @caprioleio, Bitcoin faces two main risks he identifies as a Bitcoin Treasury Bubble and Quantum, which he plans to discuss at TOKEN2049 next Wednesday at 10:45am. Source: https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1971462167510806745 He invited the community to attend the session to hear details on these risks to BTC. Source: https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1971462167510806745

According to @caprioleio, Satoshi’s early coins will be market dumped and quantum computing could break Bitcoin within 2-8 years, prompting a call to upgrade Bitcoin now and an invitation to his Token2049 talk at 10:45am on Wed Oct 1, 2025 (source: Charles Edwards X post dated Sep 26, 2025). The post offers no technical evidence for the timeline, but the claim presents headline risk that can affect BTC via narrative-driven volatility and renewed attention to on-chain monitoring of Satoshi-era UTXOs (source: Charles Edwards X post dated Sep 26, 2025). Traders can watch for unusual activity from early addresses, shifts in BTC options implied volatility and skew, and developer signals on post-quantum upgrade discussions as potential catalysts if this narrative gains traction (source: trading analysis based on Charles Edwards X post dated Sep 26, 2025).

According to @caprioleio, the quantum computing risk to Bitcoin is becoming an imminent threat and the industry is widely misunderstood, source: @caprioleio on X, Sep 26, 2025. He stated he will explain the details and what you can do at Token2049 at 10:45 on October 1, source: @caprioleio on X, Sep 26, 2025. The warning specifically highlights Bitcoin BTC security risk as the focus, source: @caprioleio on X, Sep 26, 2025.

According to @caprioleio, Charles Edwards will present Double Threat: Quantum & the Treasury Bubble at Token2049, scheduled for 10:45am on October 1 at the MEXC Stage, Marina Bay Sands, detailing what he frames as the two biggest threats to Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto alongside the significant opportunity in each topic; source: @caprioleio on X. According to @caprioleio, the session will focus on quantum and treasury bubble risks and their related opportunities specifically for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, positioning the content as directly relevant for risk-aware trading decisions; source: @caprioleio on X.

According to @caprioleio, the Consumer Discretionary versus Consumer Staples ratio has broken above its 2021 highs, a setup that historically aligns with stronger equity markets as consumer cyclicals lead defensives, source: @caprioleio and Fidelity Investments sector rotation research. For trading, leadership of Discretionary over Staples is a classic risk-on signal that favors high beta exposure and tends to improve sentiment for crypto via the documented stock crypto co-movement since 2020, source: Fidelity Investments and International Monetary Fund research. Correlations are regime dependent but have increased in several periods post 2020, so a confirmed XLY over XLP breakout would be constructive for BTC and ETH if maintained, source: International Monetary Fund and Kaiko Research. A reversal back below the 2021 highs would negate the breakout and weaken the risk-on read-through to crypto, source: @caprioleio and Kaiko Research.

According to @caprioleio, multi-year Bitcoin holders are selling, driving long-term holder (LTH) metrics lower while institutions are buying, creating opposing supply-demand forces that traders should track for positioning (source: @caprioleio on X). For execution, monitor the balance between declining on-chain LTH supply and signs of institutional accumulation to gauge near-term directional risk and volatility in BTC (source: @caprioleio on X).

According to @caprioleio, Bitcoin ETFs have resumed buying more than the daily BTC supply (source: @caprioleio). The daily Bitcoin supply is the new BTC issued via block rewards, approximately 450 BTC per day since the April 2024 halving reduced the subsidy to 3.125 BTC per block (source: Bitcoin.org).

According to Charles Edwards, Metaplanet is in a -73% drawdown, has been making infrequent Bitcoin (BTC) purchases, and its mNAV is collapsing toward 1; source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, Sep 18, 2025. For traders, Edwards’ remarks focus attention on two key drivers to monitor: the frequency of BTC treasury additions and the mNAV trajectory toward 1; source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, Sep 18, 2025. Edwards also states that all treasury company mNAVs trend toward 1 over time, underscoring convergence risk when evaluating Metaplanet equity versus holding BTC directly; source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, Sep 18, 2025.

According to @caprioleio, quantum computing is expected to outperform Bitcoin (BTC) by 50% annualized over the next 10 years. Source: https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1968456178045784403 Sep 17, 2025 For traders, this is a long-horizon relative-return view between the quantum computing theme and BTC that may inform strategic allocation assumptions. Source: https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1968456178045784403 Sep 17, 2025

According to Charles Edwards, quantum-related stocks were the only segment that rallied yesterday again, showing concentrated momentum in the theme. Source: Charles Edwards on X, Sep 17, 2025. He reports the Q4 quantum basket is up 35 percent over the last 4 days. Source: Charles Edwards on X, Sep 17, 2025. He also notes IONQ gained 41 percent in the same 4-day period. Source: Charles Edwards on X, Sep 17, 2025.

According to @caprioleio, Bitcoin's raw Energy Value just reached 187,000 USD for the first time ever, marking a new all‑time high for the model. Source: @caprioleio on X, Sep 11, 2025. The Energy Value model, created by Charles Edwards, estimates BTC's valuation from network energy consumption and mining efficiency, so a new high indicates a rising implied valuation baseline within this framework. Source: Capriole Investments research on the Bitcoin Energy Value model by Charles Edwards. Historically, sustained uptrends in Energy Value have aligned with multi‑month BTC bull phases and periods of mean reversion when spot traded below the model, which traders monitor for directional bias. Source: Capriole Investments research on Energy Value historical performance. Actionably, traders can track the spread between spot BTC and the 187,000 USD Energy Value for potential mean‑reversion setups, and watch hash rate and difficulty trends as confirmation of increasing network energy input. Source: Capriole Investments research for model usage; Bitcoin protocol documentation for hash rate and difficulty as core network metrics.

According to @caprioleio, Capriole’s Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain quant strategy “Node” reportedly achieved 40x the returns of buy-and-hold in backtests. Source: @caprioleio on X, Sep 10, 2025. It stacks multiple Bitcoin on-chain fundamental metrics to generate long, short, and cash positioning signals via a classic quantitative approach. Source: @caprioleio on X, Sep 10, 2025. The strategy also claims 25% lower maximum drawdown than Bitcoin and a 1.7 Sharpe ratio in testing. Source: @caprioleio on X, Sep 10, 2025. Node signals and details are available on Capriole’s charts page for BTC. Source: Capriole charts, Node-BTC page.

According to @caprioleio, GPT-5 now executes complex code on the first attempt almost 100% of the time, a clear improvement from a year ago when multiple debugging cycles were often required (source: @caprioleio). The post is a qualitative user claim with no benchmarks, datasets, or asset tickers provided, limiting analysis to the stated coding reliability observation (source: @caprioleio). For trading context, any market response would reflect sentiment around perceived AI capability gains rather than quantified performance data disclosed here, so treat it as qualitative narrative input to AI-linked themes (source: @caprioleio).

According to @caprioleio, when accounting for enterprise value including debt, 20% of Bitcoin Treasury Companies currently show mNAV Enterprise below 1, source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, September 1, 2025. He adds that this percentage has not reached a new all-time high, source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, September 1, 2025. He characterizes this as good news, indicating the breadth of this condition is not at an extreme relative to history, source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, September 1, 2025.

According to @caprioleio, traders can track Debt-to-Equity, Debt to Enterprise Value, and Debt to BTC holdings for all Bitcoin Treasury companies via the shared resource, enabling structured balance-sheet analysis across the sector for trading workflows, source: @caprioleio. The consolidated coverage supports quick cross-company comparisons of leverage and BTC-backed debt coverage, helping identify balance-sheet risk concentrations that can affect equity performance and BTC sensitivity, source: @caprioleio. Traders can incorporate these ratios into screening and risk management when evaluating stocks with corporate BTC holdings as proxy plays on BTC volatility, source: @caprioleio.

According to @caprioleio on X (Sep 1, 2025), institutional buying of Bitcoin has plunged to its lowest level since early April (source: @caprioleio/X). This marks a multi-month trough in BTC institutional demand relative to the period after early April, as flagged by the same source (source: @caprioleio/X).

According to @caprioleio, the Chinese stock market is forming a giant two-decade ascending triangle, and a breakout could drive a mind-blowing global capital rotation into China, source: Charles Edwards on X, Aug 28, 2025. According to @caprioleio, China’s accelerating AI and auto industries align as potential tailwinds for such a move, shaking up the global stage, source: Charles Edwards on X, Aug 28, 2025. According to @caprioleio, the post does not reference cryptocurrencies or provide index-level targets or timing details, source: Charles Edwards on X, Aug 28, 2025.