According to @caprioleio, the author stated on X that "Most Treasury companies will fail," indicating a negative outlook for the treasury services sector that is relevant to traders evaluating counterparty and cash management risks. Source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 20, 2025. According to @caprioleio, the post did not specify company names, timeframes, or quantitative evidence, so the claim should be treated as a qualitative warning rather than a data-backed forecast. Source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 20, 2025. According to @caprioleio, no specific stocks, tokens, or digital assets were mentioned in the post. Source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 20, 2025.

According to Charles Edwards, OG whales sold more BTC in 2025 than in any prior cycle, with whale dumping as a percent of market cap hitting all-time highs and holding a consistently high roughly +0.05 percent baseline through the year, source: Charles Edwards on X dated Nov 20, 2025; Capriole OG Whale Dumping chart at capriole.com/charts/?chart=og-whale-dumping-btc. For traders, the record-high distribution share versus market cap indicates persistent structural sell flow from legacy holders to monitor alongside price and liquidity, source: Capriole OG Whale Dumping chart at capriole.com/charts/?chart=og-whale-dumping-btc.

According to @caprioleio, $90K is both a technical support level and Bitcoin’s estimated production cost, creating a confluence that may favor a local bounce in BTC price action (source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 18, 2025). @caprioleio states this level should be good for a local bounce, highlighting its relevance for near-term trading focus (source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 18, 2025).

According to @caprioleio, BTC’s terminal value should be discounted today by the same probability assigned to a quantum computing “Q-Day” within the next three years (e.g., a 10% Q-Day risk implies a 10% discount), because he estimates Bitcoin would require roughly 1 year to reach upgrade consensus and 1 year to fully deploy a solution, totaling 2-3 years (source: @caprioleio, Nov 18, 2025). He further states that until consensus on a Bitcoin upgrade is reached, BTC’s terminal value declines daily as the quantum threat rises (source: @caprioleio, Nov 18, 2025).

According to @caprioleio, Capriole Charts is the only place to access deep analytics of all Bitcoin and Ethereum treasury companies, and it has added comprehensive treasury analytics for every publicly traded Ethereum company globally; source: @caprioleio, Twitter, Nov 17, 2025. This update centralizes corporate ETH and BTC treasury data in one platform for market participants seeking detailed treasury analytics; source: @caprioleio, Twitter, Nov 17, 2025.

According to @caprioleio, Bitcoin must confront the quantum computing threat now to secure its next decade, a point he discussed on The Investors Podcast video at youtube.com/watch?v=dFknx-mRmKE, source: Charles Edwards on X (Nov 16, 2025); The Investors Podcast on YouTube. For trading context, Bitcoin’s current digital signatures (ECDSA and Schnorr over secp256k1) are theoretically vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm once sufficiently capable fault-tolerant quantum computers exist, making a migration path to post-quantum schemes a material security consideration, source: BIP340 Schnorr signatures; Bitcoin Core documentation; P. W. Shor, SIAM Journal on Computing. Standards progress is underway, with NIST finalizing initial post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024 (FIPS 203–206), providing concrete algorithm baselines that wallets and custodians can evaluate, source: NIST PQC standardization announcements (2024), FIPS 203–206. Actionable for traders, monitor three catalysts: new Bitcoin Improvement Proposals introducing post-quantum signatures, wallet software updates referencing NIST-approved PQC, and exchange or custodian security disclosures on PQ readiness, as highlighted by @caprioleio’s call for preparedness, source: Bitcoin BIPs repository; NIST PQC FIPS 203–206; major exchange security pages (e.g., Coinbase Security).

According to @caprioleio, if quantum computing risks are not solved by 2026, traders should expect large, frequent market moves on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis, signaling persistent volatility risk for crypto markets; source: Charles Edwards on X, Nov 14, 2025, https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1989244014487564733. No specific assets or magnitudes were cited, indicating a broad market volatility warning rather than a coin-specific call; source: Charles Edwards on X, Nov 14, 2025, https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1989244014487564733.

According to @caprioleio, Treasury money market fund market NAV readings below 1 have hit a new all-time high, and he warns that if the broader market does not bounce soon, this stress could drive the next leg lower in risk assets. Source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, Nov 14, 2025. In money market funds, a market NAV below 1 means the portfolio would be valued under 1 dollar per share on a mark-to-market basis, a risk metric monitored under SEC Rule 2a-7 and by the U.S. Treasury Office of Financial Research Money Market Fund Monitor. Source: U.S. SEC Rule 2a-7; U.S. Treasury Office of Financial Research MMF Monitor. For trading, Edwards’ alert can be treated as a risk-off cue; traders may reduce exposure or hedge in BTC and ETH while monitoring the breadth of mNAV-below-1 readings for confirmation. Source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, Nov 14, 2025.

According to @caprioleio, the market just experienced the second-biggest institutional Bitcoin dumping day on record, indicating unusually heavy sell flows in BTC, source: @caprioleio. For trading, this alert points to heightened near-term sell pressure; traders can tighten risk and monitor BTC reactions around recent support and liquidity pockets to gauge absorption versus continuation, source: @caprioleio.

According to @caprioleio, migrating to Bitcoin’s BIP360 could take 10-30 months, setting a multi-quarter technical timeline that defines when any quantum-resilient path might realistically reach mainnet for BTC. Source: Charles Edwards on X, Nov 13, 2025, x.com/caprioleio/status/1988802885803733487. He adds that a quantum-proof solution would reopen the block size debate because post-quantum signatures are about 100x larger, which would fill blocks faster and materially constrain available block space per block. Source: Charles Edwards on X, Nov 13, 2025, x.com/caprioleio/status/1988802885803733487; full discussion: youtube.com/watch?v=dFknx-mRmKE. Edwards flags 2026 as the year the network needs consensus on these issues, establishing a governance milestone that frames the Bitcoin BIP360 migration timeline and post-quantum signature discussion for BTC market participants. Source: Charles Edwards on X, Nov 13, 2025, x.com/caprioleio/status/1988802885803733487.

According to @caprioleio, OGs are unloading BTC, signaling distribution from early Bitcoin holders into the market; source: X post by @caprioleio on Nov 12, 2025, https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1988727945981227171. The post references a related thread by @GoingParabolic for context but does not provide quantitative on-chain or flow data in the post itself; source: X post by @caprioleio on Nov 12, 2025, and linked thread https://x.com/GoingParabolic/status/1988423220467478861. For traders, this serves as a sell-side supply alert on BTC as reported by the author; source: X post by @caprioleio on Nov 12, 2025, https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1988727945981227171.

According to @caprioleio, Bitcoin ETFs saw no bid yesterday even as the U.S. shutdown appeared to be ending and both the S&P 500 and gold bounced sharply, indicating weak BTC ETF demand versus broader risk-on assets (source: @caprioleio). The author adds that risk assets typically see a strong bid in the weeks following a shutdown, making the current lack of ETF buying an unfavorable signal if it persists (source: @caprioleio). The note concludes there is still time for this to reverse, but the bid needs to turn for BTC to realign with the usual post-shutdown risk rally pattern (source: @caprioleio).

According to @caprioleio, a Bitcoin quantum-safe model that relies on meticulous user operations is impractical and would crush adoption by pushing transaction activity toward zero, increasing execution risk for holders and traders. Source: Charles Edwards on X, Nov 11, 2025. He argues the approach still leaves vectors for quantum hacks, implying unresolved protocol-level vulnerabilities that could damage BTC market confidence and liquidity. Source: Charles Edwards on X, Nov 11, 2025. He claims roughly 30% of lost or P2PK-era coins could be stolen and dumped, creating a large supply overhang that undermines Bitcoin’s hard money thesis and poses acute sell-pressure risk. Source: Charles Edwards on X, Nov 11, 2025. He concludes BTC’s only viable path is a network consensus upgrade to be agreed in 2026, setting a critical timeline for traders to track governance signals and roadmap clarity. Source: Charles Edwards on X, Nov 11, 2025.

According to @caprioleio, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin yield is at an all-time low, prompting a challenge to the firm's business model, source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, Nov 10, 2025. The comment directs trader attention to the spread between BTC returns and MicroStrategy's debt-funded accumulation costs as disclosed in company filings, a key driver for MSTR's equity premium over spot BTC, source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, Nov 10, 2025; MicroStrategy Inc. 10-K/10-Q investor filings 2020–2024.

According to @caprioleio, BTC printed a bullish weekly close, while macro indicators are turning risk-on for crypto (source: @caprioleio on X). He cites Polymarket pricing a 90% probability that the US government shutdown ends this week, a potential sentiment tailwind for risk assets (source: Polymarket odds, via @caprioleio). He also notes the Federal Reserve signaling an aggregate 100 bps of rate cuts over the next 18 months and confirming plans to grow its balance sheet, both supportive for liquidity-sensitive assets like BTC (source: Federal Reserve communications, via @caprioleio). Edwards highlights equities sitting in extreme fear on the Fear & Greed benchmark, indicating washed-out positioning (source: CNN Business Fear & Greed Index, via @caprioleio), and observes a bullish skew in the equity put/call ratio, a classic contrarian buy signal (source: CBOE options data, via @caprioleio). Taken together, these signals support a near-term bullish bias for Bitcoin price action (source: @caprioleio).

According to @caprioleio, on-chain activity in 2025 shows numerous 7+ year coin spends by pre-2018 Bitcoin holders, with $100M events marked in orange and $500M events in red, indicating OG whales are dumping, source: @caprioleio. The author notes the 2025 chart is very colorful, signaling widespread cashing out by long-term holders, source: @caprioleio.

According to @caprioleio, Bitcoin needs a concrete target timeline for implementing quantum-safe protections even if he disagrees with the calculation method behind the proposed target, because a clear milestone provides critical execution focus for the network and stakeholders, source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 6, 2025, https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1985936887941648513. He warns that if Bitcoin has not solved its quantum vulnerability by the referenced target, the market could face severe downside, implying material tail risk to BTC price and long-duration holdings, source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 6, 2025, https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1985936887941648513. The post indicates a debated methodology behind the target but underscores the need for a visual milestone, framing quantum readiness as a key risk factor traders should monitor in BTC’s long-term thesis, source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 6, 2025, https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1985936887941648513.

According to @caprioleio, institutional buying of BTC is drying up and the Treasury Company flywheel is slowing alongside an mNAV collapse, source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 5, 2025. The author adds that long-term holders are selling and suggests that fears of quantum computing breaking Bitcoin ahead of other encrypted systems may be discounting BTC’s long-term value, source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 5, 2025. The post calls for upgrading Bitcoin to be quantum-resistant as soon as possible, source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 5, 2025.

According to @caprioleio, Bitcoin is down about $10,000 and he warns traders to exit when institutional buying stops, directing users to a live Institutional Buying Daily Rate to monitor demand strength (source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 4, 2025; source: Capriole.com). For trade risk management, monitor the Capriole Institutional Buying Daily Rate for slowdowns or negative readings as a risk off signal for BTC exposure per the author’s guidance (source: @caprioleio on X; source: Capriole.com). The shared link leads to Capriole’s Bitcoin Treasuries Institutional Buying Daily Rate chart, which provides a live view of institutional accumulation activity for Bitcoin tracking purposes (source: Capriole.com).

According to @caprioleio, Bitcoin has a two-year window to agree and deploy a quantum-security solution to mitigate leading-edge attack risk, with network consensus required in 2026. Source: X post by @caprioleio on Oct 28, 2025 https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1982973762812424584