According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 closed at another all-time high, marking its 38th record of the year. source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 24, 2025. Crypto traders should monitor BTC and ETH as Bitcoin’s rolling correlation with U.S. equities shifted between positive and near-zero in 2023–2024, making equity breakouts relevant for cross-asset risk transmission. source: Kaiko Research, 2024 correlation and market structure analyses.

According to @charliebilello, gold is up 69% year to date in 2025, making it the best-performing major asset, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 23, 2025; bilello.blog/newsletter. According to @charliebilello, Bitcoin is down 5% year to date in 2025, ranking as the worst-performing major asset, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 23, 2025; bilello.blog/newsletter. According to @charliebilello, this best-versus-worst spread between gold and Bitcoin has not occurred before in any calendar year and is the inverse of 2013, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 23, 2025; bilello.blog/newsletter.

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 was down over 15% year to date on April 8 (the 4th worst start on record) but then rallied 38%, leaving it up 17% YTD and notching 37 all-time highs in 2025, highlighting a powerful momentum regime for risk assets, source: @charliebilello on X. IMF research documented a marked rise in BTC–S&P 500 co-movement since 2020, indicating that strong equity momentum can have greater relevance for crypto market risk and spillovers, source: IMF Blog by Tobias Adrian, Tara Iyer, and Mahvash S. Qureshi, January 2022.

According to @charliebilello, the VIX averaged 19.1 in 2025, slightly below its historical norm, indicating perceived volatility was higher than what the data show (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 22, 2025; referenced video on YouTube). The VIX measures the market’s 30-day expected volatility for the S&P 500, and readings near 20 align with long-run averages while spikes above 30 are commonly associated with stressed risk conditions (source: Cboe Global Markets, VIX overview and historical context). For crypto traders, stronger post-2020 equity–crypto comovement means a near-normal VIX generally corresponds to less extreme cross-asset stress than high-VIX regimes seen in prior episodes (source: International Monetary Fund, 2022, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks).

According to @charliebilello, the VIX has averaged 19.1 in 2025, slightly below its historical norm, indicating that realized market stress was not extreme despite headlines, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 22, 2025. Cboe indicates the long-run VIX average is around 20, framing 19.1 as a typical risk regime rather than crisis-level volatility, source: Cboe VIX education and historical data. Because VIX reflects S&P 500 option-implied volatility, a 19 handle generally aligns with moderate index option premiums and less costly hedging than in high-vol spikes, source: Cboe VIX methodology. BIS research documents increased post-2020 equity–crypto co-movement, making equity volatility regimes relevant for BTC and ETH risk management, so a non-extreme VIX backdrop helps calibrate crypto position sizing and hedges, source: Bank for International Settlements, 2022 analysis on crypto–equity correlations.

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 fell 1.2% yesterday, marking the 29th session in 2025 with a decline greater than 1%, which he notes is in line with the long-term average of 29 such large down days per year, highlighting that downside volatility is a normal feature of markets (source: Charlie Bilello). For trading, this means equity risk remains elevated but not abnormal, and positioning should account for routine large swings in SPX that can affect cross-asset risk appetite (source: Charlie Bilello). Crypto traders should note that equity selloffs have historically coincided with higher BTC–SPX return co-movements; IMF research documented that the BTC–S&P 500 daily return correlation rose from near zero in 2017–2019 to about 0.36 in 2020–2021, indicating higher spillover risk during risk-off episodes (source: IMF, 2022, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks). Monitoring the Cboe VIX, which measures expected SPX volatility, alongside BTC and ETH can help manage beta and leverage when equity downside accelerates (source: Cboe Global Markets; IMF, 2022).

According to @charliebilello, this year’s US trade data were distorted by massive Q1 front‑running of tariffs as corporations built inventories that boosted imports and widened the trade deficit in Q1, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 11, 2025. According to @charliebilello, firms are now working off those inventories, leading to lower imports and smaller trade deficits in subsequent months, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 11, 2025. According to @charliebilello, the real US trade picture will not be clear until some point in 2026, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 11, 2025. According to @charliebilello, consumer price increases are still likely ahead, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 11, 2025.

According to @charliebilello, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services totaled $766 billion in the first nine months of 2025 versus $653 billion in the same period of 2024, a 17% year-over-year increase and a record high. Source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 11, 2025. In U.S. national accounts, a larger trade deficit reduces GDP via the net exports component (NX), making the print relevant for rate expectations and USD positioning. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Handbook. Crypto traders can monitor USD moves and U.S. real yields for potential spillovers to BTC and ETH, which are broadly quoted in USD across major venues and via CME-listed bitcoin futures. Source: CME Group contract specifications for Bitcoin futures; exchange USD-quoted BTCUSD and ETHUSD markets.

According to Charlie Bilello, US stocks, home prices, gold, money supply, and national debt are at all-time highs, CPI inflation has averaged about 4% per year since January 2020, and the Federal Reserve cut rates today and will start quantitative easing on Friday (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 10, 2025). For crypto traders, shifts toward rate cuts and QE indicate looser financial conditions that have been associated with higher beta risk performance, and crypto’s correlation with equities has strengthened in recent years under such conditions (source: IMF, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stock Prices, 2022). Quantitative easing expands the central bank balance sheet and adds liquidity to the financial system, a macro backdrop traders often monitor for potential flows into Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) alongside other risk assets (source: Federal Reserve Board, explanation of quantitative easing; source: IMF, 2022; source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 10, 2025).

According to Charlie Bilello, a new video titled The State of the Markets is now live, offering his latest market overview for traders and investors. Source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 10, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, the post shares the video link piped.video/watch?v=X8uAvtDFOcU but does not disclose specific market data within the tweet itself, directing viewers to the video for detailed analysis. Source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 10, 2025.

According to Charlie Bilello, the Federal Reserve’s cumulative 150 bps in rate cuts are an unnecessary easing that will fuel inflation, and he argues cuts do not create jobs given what he calls the weakest labor market since 2020 (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 9, 2025). For trading, such a critique can prompt positioning for higher inflation expectations and rates volatility around FOMC signals, with USD moves historically linked to BTC via a negative BTC-DXY correlation (sources: CME Group FedWatch for rate-pricing; Binance Research, 2023, on BTC-DXY correlation). BTC and ETH have shown sensitivity to US real yields in past cycles, with lower real yields aligning with stronger crypto performance (source: Glassnode Insights, 2023). Crypto traders can monitor DXY, Treasury real yields, and breakeven inflation as catalysts for short-term direction following policy-easing headlines (sources: Federal Reserve H.15 for yields; FRED TIPS breakevens).

According to Charlie Bilello, the Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds target range by 25 bps to 3.50–3.75%, citing labor market weakness while noting inflation has run at roughly twice the 2% target over the past six years (source: Charlie Bilello on X). This report is not yet confirmed; official FOMC decisions must be verified against the post-meeting statement and target range published by the Federal Reserve (source: Federal Reserve). If confirmed, a 25 bps cut would lower the policy rate anchor for front-end Treasury yields, potentially easing financial conditions that influence USD liquidity and risk sentiment in crypto, warranting close monitoring of BTC and ETH around policy headlines (source: Federal Reserve).

According to @charliebilello, the US national debt has risen by $2.2 trillion since the debt ceiling was raised in July, highlighting continued rapid federal borrowing (source: Charlie Bilello post on X). Larger deficits typically translate into increased Treasury issuance, and higher federal debt levels are empirically associated with upward pressure on long-term interest rates via a higher term premium (source: U.S. Department of the Treasury auction communications and Quarterly Refunding materials; Congressional Budget Office analysis on federal debt and interest rates, 2019). Rising yields and tighter financial conditions tend to weigh on risk assets, while crypto has increasingly moved in sync with equities during risk-off episodes, making Treasury market dynamics directly relevant for BTC and broader digital assets (source: IMF Global Financial Stability analysis on crypto–equity comovement, 2022). For trading, monitor 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, Treasury auction sizes and bid-to-cover ratios, and the U.S. Dollar Index DXY; sustained increases in yields or dollar strength have coincided with weaker crypto performance during tightening phases (source: Federal Reserve H.15 for Treasury yields; U.S. Department of the Treasury auction calendar and results; ICE data for DXY; IMF Global Financial Stability analysis on crypto–equity comovement, 2022).

According to Charlie Bilello, the percentage of US workers quitting their jobs fell to 1.8%, the lowest since May 2020, indicating the labor market continues to weaken (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 9, 2025). A lower quits rate reflects fewer voluntary job changes and softer worker confidence under the BLS JOLTS framework, a macro signal closely watched by traders for positioning across risk assets (source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey).

According to @charliebilello, selling during bear markets and waiting for the coast to be clear often results in missing many of the best up-days and largest gains, a pattern he notes occurred again in 2025 (source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 8, 2025; video: piped.video/watch?v=LutENzRsYL0&t=1075s). For crypto portfolios, this implies traders should avoid full exits and consider keeping core exposure or using staged re-entries to capture sharp rebound days that can drive outsized returns in volatile assets like BTC and ETH (source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 8, 2025; video: piped.video/watch?v=LutENzRsYL0&t=1075s). Practical tactics aligned with this guidance include dollar-cost averaging, predefined buy triggers, and partial hedging to manage drawdowns without forfeiting upside participation during bear-to-bull transitions (source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 8, 2025; video: piped.video/watch?v=LutENzRsYL0&t=1075s).

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high in less than three months after the April bear-market lows, marking the second-fastest recovery for U.S. stocks in 75 years after 1982 (source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 8, 2025). Crypto traders monitor this risk-on momentum because Bitcoin and U.S. equities showed sustained positive correlations in recent cycles, making SPX breakouts a relevant cross-asset signal for BTC and ETH positioning (source: Glassnode, The Week On-chain correlation analyses, 2022–2023).

According to Charlie Bilello, he sends a weekly letter to tens of thousands of investors covering the most important charts and themes in markets, inviting readers to join at bilello.blog/newsletter; source: Charlie Bilello on X dated Dec 8, 2025. The subscription link and details are provided on bilello.blog/newsletter; source: bilello.blog/newsletter.

According to Charlie Bilello, bull markets have lasted on average five times longer than bear markets, with bull phases delivering about +254% over roughly five years versus bear phases averaging -31% over about one year (source: Charlie Bilello, X post on Dec 7, 2025, and linked video at piped.video/watch?v=LutENzRsYL0&t=1075s). Bilello emphasizes that markets spend more time compounding gains than destroying wealth and argues that interrupting compounding is the biggest risk for investors and traders (source: Charlie Bilello, X post on Dec 7, 2025, and linked video at piped.video/watch?v=LutENzRsYL0&t=1075s). For trading, Bilello’s message prioritizes maintaining exposure and avoiding forced exits that cut off participation in multi-year uptrends, while using risk controls to survive shorter drawdowns, a framework traders can also apply in crypto markets (source: Charlie Bilello, X post on Dec 7, 2025, and linked video at piped.video/watch?v=LutENzRsYL0&t=1075s).

According to Charlie Bilello, Warren Buffett said in 1999 that it is wildly optimistic to assume corporate profits can hold much above 6% of US GDP for a sustained period. Source: Charlie Bilello on X/Twitter (Dec 7, 2025), https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1997706094005883204; Warren Buffett, 1999, as cited by Bilello. This highlights a tradable macro gauge: track the BEA-reported corporate profits-to-GDP ratio versus the 6% long-run anchor to assess earnings sustainability and potential equity valuation risk. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (corporate profits and nominal GDP series), https://www.bea.gov; Warren Buffett, 1999, as cited by Bilello. Because crypto and US equities have shown periods of positive correlation, shifts in this profit-share metric that impact risk sentiment can spill over to BTC and ETH volatility. Source: IMF blog “Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Posing New Risks” (2022); Coin Metrics correlation datasets, https://coinmetrics.io.

According to @charliebilello, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has shrunk 24% over the past three years while the S&P 500 has advanced 82%, indicating the SPX rally has persisted during quantitative tightening, not QE, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 7, 2025. He adds this dispels the myth that the stock market is dependent on QE to rise, a data point equity traders can use when evaluating SPX trend drivers in a QT environment, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 7, 2025.