According to @charliebilello, the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December to counter persistent inflation pressure. source: @charliebilello on X (Nov 23, 2025) He asserts that inflation has run at more than twice the Fed’s 2% target for over five years and notes U.S. stocks and home prices are at record highs. source: @charliebilello on X (Nov 23, 2025) He warns that policies perceived as loose risk creating additional inflation and worsening affordability, a backdrop traders may interpret as a hawkish signal for rate expectations into the December meeting. source: @charliebilello on X (Nov 23, 2025)

According to @charliebilello, halting money printing, ending deficit spending, stopping interest rate cuts, and removing artificial demand subsidies would bring prices down and immediately improve affordability, source: @charliebilello on X Nov 23 2025. According to @charliebilello, this stance favors policy tightening over stimulus as the path to lower prices and improved affordability, source: @charliebilello on X Nov 23 2025. According to @charliebilello, no specific assets or cryptocurrencies were mentioned and the post reflects the author’s policy view rather than an official policy announcement, source: @charliebilello on X Nov 23 2025.

According to @charliebilello, halting money printing, ending deficit spending, and removing demand subsidies would bring prices down and immediately improve affordability. Source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 23, 2025. The author frames these three levers as the direct policy path to disinflation, making them the catalysts to watch for pricing shifts in inflation-sensitive markets once implemented. Source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 23, 2025. For trading strategy, the actionable takeaway is to track official moves on money supply growth, fiscal deficits, and demand subsidies highlighted by the author as determinants of near-term price levels. Source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 23, 2025.

According to Charlie Bilello, drawdowns from all-time highs show Bitcoin (BTC) at -33%, Ethereum (ETH) at -45%, and Dogecoin (DOGE) at -81%, while Apple and Google are each -2% below their peaks, quantifying dispersion between crypto and mega-cap tech, source: Charlie Bilello, X, Nov 22, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, crypto-exposed equities are also under water, with Coinbase (COIN) at -46% and MicroStrategy (MSTR) at -69%, compared with the S&P 500 at -5% and Gold at -7%, source: Charlie Bilello, X, Nov 22, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, additional high-beta names include Tesla at -20%, Meta at -25%, Palantir at -26%, and Nvidia at -16%, while smaller or meme tokens show far larger gaps such as Trump Coin at -92%, Fartcoin at -93%, and Melania Coin at -99%, source: Charlie Bilello, X, Nov 22, 2025.

According to @charliebilello, gold has outperformed Bitcoin by 19% since the inception of the first Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, with GLD and IBIT referenced as the comparative proxies, source: X post by @charliebilello on Nov 22, 2025; bilello.blog/newsletter. For traders, this marks a 19% relative-strength spread over that window, implying a positive GLD/BTC spread and a negative BTC/Gold spread on a simple price comparison, source: @charliebilello on X. Instrument context: GLD is SPDR Gold Shares and IBIT is the iShares Bitcoin Trust, sources: ssga.com; ishares.com.

According to @charliebilello, gold is up 55% year-to-date in 2025 while Bitcoin is down 9%, making gold the best-performing major asset and Bitcoin the worst, highlighting a rare divergence (source: @charliebilello on X, Nov 22, 2025; bilello.blog/newsletter). According to @charliebilello, this setup is the inverse of 2013, indicating an unusual rotation that traders can benchmark via GLD versus BTC performance for relative-strength tracking (source: @charliebilello on X, Nov 22, 2025; bilello.blog/newsletter). According to @charliebilello, the reported spread supports trading approaches that favor GLD over BTC or monitoring the GLD/BTC spread for momentum or mean-reversion signals, with risk framed by the stated YTD gap (source: @charliebilello on X, Nov 22, 2025; bilello.blog/newsletter).

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 fell 5.8% from its Oct 29 peak at today’s low, marking the 31st 5%+ pullback since the March 2009 bottom. Source: @charliebilello (X, Nov 21, 2025). He also notes that each prior pullback eventually recovered to new highs, underscoring the historical tendency for equities to mean-revert after drawdowns. Source: @charliebilello (X, Nov 21, 2025). For crypto traders, stronger post-2020 stock–crypto correlations mean equity risk-off can spill over into BTC and ETH volatility and liquidity, making S&P drawdowns a key cross-asset sentiment gauge. Source: International Monetary Fund, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync with Stocks (Jan 2022).

According to Charlie Bilello, the S&P 500 fell 5.8% from its October 29 peak at today’s low, marking the 31st pullback of 5% or more since the March 2009 bottom, with prior drawdowns eventually recovering over time. Source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 21, 2025. For crypto traders, research shows stock–crypto linkages strengthened after 2020, with Bitcoin increasingly moving in sync with U.S. equities during risk-off episodes, implying S&P weakness can transmit to BTC and ETH volatility. Source: International Monetary Fund, “Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks,” 2022. European Central Bank analysis also reports higher correlations between crypto assets and stock markets during stress, reinforcing the need to track S&P 500 moves when managing crypto exposure. Source: European Central Bank, Financial Stability Review, 2022.

According to Charlie Bilello, the S&P 500 fell 1.6% yesterday, marking the 27th daily decline in 2025 with a loss greater than 1% (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 21, 2025). According to Charlie Bilello, the long-term average since 1928 is 29 such large daily declines per year, indicating that recent downside volatility is within historical norms rather than extreme conditions (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 21, 2025). According to Binance Research, BTC and US equities have shown periods of positive correlation, meaning equity volatility can transmit risk sentiment into crypto markets, a key consideration for BTC and ETH traders during SPX drawdowns (source: Binance Research, 2024).

According to Charlie Bilello, 1-year returns show Bitcoin BTC at minus 1 percent, MicroStrategy MSTR at minus 63 percent, and the 2x Long MicroStrategy ETF MSTU at minus 95 percent, highlighting a sharp divergence among BTC, its equity proxy, and a leveraged ETF as of Nov 21, 2025 (Source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 21, 2025). Based on these figures, BTC outperformed MSTR by 62 percentage points and MSTU by 94 percentage points over the period, underscoring the impact of instrument selection on realized BTC exposure (Source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 21, 2025). For trading strategy, the data indicate that direct BTC exposure had far smaller drawdowns than MSTR or the 2x MSTU over the last year, emphasizing tighter position sizing and risk controls when using equity or leveraged BTC proxies (Source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 21, 2025).

According to Charlie Bilello, a 5% S&P 500 pullback set the plunge protection team in motion, underscoring a market addicted to easy money (Source: Charlie Bilello, X, Nov 21, 2025). He adds that with inflation averaging roughly 4% per year over the last five years, the Federal Reserve should be hiking rates instead of cutting and has lost credibility, framing policy as too accommodative for current price trends (Source: Charlie Bilello, X, Nov 21, 2025). For trading, Bilello’s stance signals that shallow equity drawdowns may coincide with easier policy expectations, a setup that traders often watch for liquidity-sensitive moves in BTC and ETH alongside real-yield and rate-cut headlines (Source: analysis based on Charlie Bilello, X, Nov 21, 2025).

According to Charlie Bilello, BTC has fallen about 36% from its early-October all-time high of $126,300 to $80,600, marking the largest correction from an ATH since 2022 (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 21, 2025). He notes that similar or larger annual drawdowns have occurred regularly, indicating this move is within Bitcoin’s typical volatility profile and should be treated by traders as historically normal when sizing positions and setting risk limits (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 21, 2025).

According to @charliebilello, percent declines from 52-week highs are Apple -4%, Google -6%, S&P 500 -6%, Gold -7%, Microsoft -14%, Nvidia -15%, Amazon -16%, Tesla -20%, Palantir -25%, Meta -26%, Bitcoin (BTC) -32%, Ethereum (ETH) -44%, Coinbase (COIN) -47%, MicroStrategy (MSTR) -67%, Dogecoin (DOGE) -70%, Fartcoin -90%, Trump Coin -91%, and Melania Coin -99%. According to @charliebilello, the snapshot shows core crypto (BTC, ETH) and crypto-linked equities (COIN, MSTR) trading materially further below 52-week highs than most mega-cap stocks in the same list. According to @charliebilello, all figures reflect percent drawdowns versus 52-week highs as of Nov 20, 2025.

According to @charliebilello, BTC is around $86,000, roughly 32% below its all-time high of $126,000 from early October, representing the largest drawdown since April and consistent with Bitcoin’s historical volatility; source: @charliebilello on X, Nov 20, 2025. For traders, this frames the current move as a historically typical volatility reset rather than an outlier, per @charliebilello (X, Nov 20, 2025).

According to @charliebilello, total U.S. jobs increased 0.8% year over year, the slowest pace since March 2021 based on BLS payroll data, source: @charliebilello on X; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics. He adds that over the past 50 years, this degree of labor-market weakness preceded a recession and a spike in the unemployment rate 100% of the time, source: @charliebilello on X. For traders, a cooling labor market raises the likelihood of easier policy given the Fed’s mandate to balance maximum employment and price stability, source: Federal Reserve Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. Historically, periods of slowing growth that coincide with falling real yields and a softer dollar have aligned with stronger risk-asset performance, and BTC and ETH have shown episodes of negative correlation to real yields and the DXY, source: Coin Metrics State of the Network; Kaiko Research cross-asset correlations; FRED real yield proxies and ICE U.S. Dollar Index. Monitor BLS labor reports alongside the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and DXY as near-term drivers for crypto beta and liquidity conditions, source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE Data Indices.

According to @charliebilello, gold is up 54% year-to-date in 2025, making it the best-performing major asset, while Bitcoin (BTC) is down 1% and ranks as the worst performer among majors (X post dated Nov 18, 2025; YouTube video referenced). According to @charliebilello, this setup is unprecedented in any calendar year and is the inverse of 2013 (X post dated Nov 18, 2025). According to @charliebilello, the performance gap between GLD and BTC is roughly 55 percentage points year-to-date, highlighting a decisive cross-asset divergence that traders can anchor to for relative performance tracking (X post dated Nov 18, 2025).

According to @charliebilello, Bitcoin is now down 4% year-to-date in 2025 after being up over 35% in early October, with a current drawdown of 29% from the recent high, source: @charliebilello on X, Nov 18, 2025. According to @charliebilello, this shift represents roughly a 39 percentage-point swing from early October to mid-November, underscoring a sharp momentum reversal that is directly relevant for BTC risk management and positioning, source: @charliebilello on X, Nov 18, 2025.

According to Charlie Bilello, a Nov 18, 2025 snapshot shows 52-week-high drawdowns of BTC -29%, ETH -40%, DOGE -69%, Coinbase (COIN) -41%, and MicroStrategy (MSTR) -64%, while the S&P 500 is -4% and gold is -8%; source: Charlie Bilello. According to Charlie Bilello, the same snapshot lists Google -3%, Apple -4%, Microsoft -9%, Amazon -10%, Nvidia -12%, Tesla -16%, Palantir -18%, and Meta -25%, indicating larger drawdowns for the cited crypto assets than most of the cited mega-cap tech names in this period; source: Charlie Bilello. According to Charlie Bilello, within crypto, BTC’s -29% drawdown is smaller than ETH’s -40% and DOGE’s -69% in this snapshot, providing a relative-strength ranking by distance from 52-week highs; source: Charlie Bilello. According to Charlie Bilello, crypto-linked equities show steeper declines than BTC in the same list, with COIN -41% and MSTR -64% versus BTC -29%; source: Charlie Bilello.

According to @charliebilello, over the last year BTC returned +2%, MSTR fell 43%, and the 2x Long MicroStrategy ETF MSTU dropped 89%, creating a 91 percentage point performance gap between BTC and MSTU, source: @charliebilello on X, Nov 18, 2025. According to @charliebilello, this dispersion reinforces the message to know what you own and why you own it, source: @charliebilello on X, Nov 18, 2025. According to @charliebilello, for traders targeting Bitcoin exposure, the data show direct BTC exposure outperformed equity and leveraged proxies such as MSTR and MSTU over this period, source: @charliebilello on X, Nov 18, 2025.

According to Charlie Bilello, a retweeted quote from Peter Mallouk underscores that at a 10x revenue multiple, investors would need 100 percent of revenues paid out for 10 straight years in dividends to achieve payback, highlighting the math behind high price to sales valuations, source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 16, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, this emphasizes that high multiple equities demand exceptional and durable free cash flow generation to justify current prices, or face elevated risk of multiple compression, source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 16, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, traders should prioritize margins, free cash flow conversion, and durability of growth when positioning in high P S names, using revenue multiples alongside cash flow metrics to manage downside risk, source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 16, 2025.