China Precious Metals Surge: SHFE Silver Inventories Plunge to 715 (Lowest Since 2016) and Down 86% Since 2020
According to @KobeissiLetter, China's gold and silver are "skyrocketing" as silver inventories in warehouses linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen to 715, the lowest since July 2016, with stockpiles down 86% from the 2020 pandemic peak, source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, Nov 30, 2025. According to @KobeissiLetter, the post directly links the current rally to multi-year-low SHFE-linked silver inventories, highlighting tight physical supply conditions in China’s precious metals markets, source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, Nov 30, 2025.
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China's surging demand for precious metals is creating significant ripples across global markets, particularly in cryptocurrency trading circles where Bitcoin is often dubbed 'digital gold.' According to The Kobeissi Letter, silver inventories linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange have plummeted to just 715 tonnes, marking the lowest level since July 2016. This dramatic drop represents an 86% decline from the peak levels seen during the 2020 pandemic, signaling intense buying pressure and potential supply shortages that could drive prices higher. Meanwhile, gold inventories at the Shanghai Gold Exchange are also under scrutiny, with the tweet highlighting ongoing depletion trends that underscore China's voracious appetite for these safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties.
Impact on Gold and Silver Prices: Trading Opportunities Emerge
As traders digest this inventory data from November 30, 2025, gold prices have shown resilience, often correlating with broader market volatility. Historically, when physical gold and silver stockpiles dwindle in major exchanges like Shanghai, it fuels upward momentum in spot prices. For instance, silver's sharp inventory decline could push its price toward key resistance levels around $30 per ounce, based on recent trading patterns observed in global commodities markets. This scenario presents intriguing trading setups, such as long positions in silver futures or related ETFs, especially if paired with monitoring volume spikes on platforms like COMEX. From a crypto perspective, this precious metals rally often influences Bitcoin's trajectory, as investors rotate between traditional safe-havens and digital alternatives during times of fiat currency devaluation fears.
Crypto Correlations: Bitcoin as Digital Gold in Focus
Diving deeper into cross-market dynamics, Bitcoin (BTC) has frequently mirrored gold's movements, with correlation coefficients hovering around 0.5 in volatile periods according to various market analyses. With China's gold and silver inventories hitting multi-year lows, BTC traders should watch for sympathy plays. If gold breaks above $2,500 per ounce—a level tested multiple times in 2024—Bitcoin could see inflows from institutional investors seeking inflation hedges. Trading volumes in BTC/USD pairs on major exchanges have historically surged during such commodity rallies, providing opportunities for scalping or swing trades. For example, on-chain metrics from sources like Glassnode indicate that Bitcoin's realized volatility often spikes in tandem with gold's, offering data-driven entry points around support levels like $60,000. Ethereum (ETH), while less directly tied to gold, benefits indirectly through broader risk-on sentiment in DeFi ecosystems, where yields on stablecoin lending could attract capital fleeing traditional markets.
Beyond immediate price action, this inventory squeeze in China points to macroeconomic shifts, including potential stimulus measures that could boost global liquidity. Traders eyeing altcoins like Solana (SOL) or Chainlink (LINK) might find value in monitoring how precious metals trends affect overall crypto market cap, which stood at over $2 trillion in recent sessions. Institutional flows, as tracked by reports from firms like Grayscale, show increasing allocations to both gold-backed tokens and native cryptos, creating arbitrage opportunities across asset classes. For stock market correlations, indices like the S&P 500 often dip when commodity prices soar due to inflation concerns, prompting crypto as a diversification tool. In summary, this development reinforces the narrative of precious metals as bellwethers for crypto sentiment, urging traders to incorporate real-time inventory data into their strategies for maximized returns.
Broader Market Implications and Risk Management
Looking ahead, the depletion of silver stockpiles by 86% since 2020 underscores supply chain vulnerabilities, potentially exacerbated by geopolitical tensions. This could lead to heightened volatility in related trading pairs, such as XAG/USD for silver or even crypto derivatives like BTC perpetual futures. Savvy traders should employ risk management techniques, including stop-loss orders below key support levels and diversification into stablecoins like USDT during pullbacks. Market indicators, such as the gold-to-silver ratio, which has compressed recently, suggest overbought conditions that might trigger corrections—ideal for short-term hedging with options. Ultimately, as China's economic policies evolve, these inventory trends could catalyze a new bull cycle in both traditional and digital assets, rewarding those who align their portfolios with data-backed insights.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.