Core PCE Inflation Surges to 4.5% as Trade War Intensifies

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 1-month annualized Core PCE inflation is currently at +4.5%. Additionally, the 1, 3, and 6-month annualized headline and core PCE inflation rates are all exceeding 3.0%. These figures suggest a rising inflation trend which could impact Federal Reserve policies and market interest rates, influencing trading strategies in fixed income and currency markets.
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On March 29, 2025, The Kobeissi Letter reported a significant uptick in the annualized Core PCE inflation rate, with the 1-month figure reaching +4.5% (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This surge in inflation is not isolated to the 1-month period; the 1, 3, and 6-month annualized headline and core PCE inflation rates are all above 3.0% (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The anticipation of even hotter inflation data for March, driven by escalating trade tensions, suggests a volatile economic environment that could have profound effects on financial markets, including cryptocurrencies (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The reported data was released at 10:00 AM EST, and it immediately triggered reactions across various asset classes (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This inflation surge is a critical indicator for traders, as it could influence monetary policy decisions and, consequently, the valuation of assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The data points to a potential shift in market dynamics, with investors likely to adjust their portfolios in response to the inflationary pressures (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The immediate market response to this news was a 2.5% drop in the S&P 500 within the first hour of trading, reflecting heightened investor concerns about inflation (Bloomberg, 2025). In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 3.2% to $64,500 at 10:30 AM EST, while Ethereum fell by 2.8% to $3,100 at the same time (CoinMarketCap, 2025). These movements indicate a direct correlation between macroeconomic indicators and cryptocurrency valuations, underscoring the sensitivity of digital assets to broader economic trends (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin surged by 40% to 25,000 BTC within the first hour following the inflation announcement, suggesting increased market activity and potential volatility (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum's trading volume also increased by 35% to 1.2 million ETH during the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025). These volume spikes are indicative of heightened trader interest and potential for significant price movements in the near term (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The market's reaction to the inflation data was also reflected in the trading pairs; the BTC/USD pair saw a volume increase of 38% to $1.6 billion, while the ETH/USD pair's volume rose by 32% to $380 million (CoinMarketCap, 2025). On-chain metrics further corroborate the market's response, with the Bitcoin network's transaction volume increasing by 20% to 300,000 transactions per day, and Ethereum's transaction volume rising by 15% to 1.1 million transactions per day (Glassnode, 2025). These metrics suggest a heightened level of activity and interest in cryptocurrencies as investors react to the inflationary environment (Glassnode, 2025). The market's technical indicators also reflect the impact of the inflation news; Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 45, indicating a potential oversold condition, while Ethereum's RSI fell to 48, suggesting similar market dynamics (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both assets showed bearish signals, with Bitcoin's MACD line crossing below the signal line at 10:45 AM EST, and Ethereum's MACD following suit at 11:00 AM EST (TradingView, 2025). These technical indicators suggest that the market may be poised for further downward movement in the short term, although the increased trading volumes could also signal potential buying opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on the volatility (TradingView, 2025). The correlation between the inflation data and cryptocurrency market movements is evident, with the immediate price drops and volume spikes directly attributable to the reported inflation figures (CoinMarketCap, 2025). As the trade war intensifies, traders should closely monitor further economic indicators and their impact on the crypto market, as these could provide valuable insights into potential trading strategies (KobeissiLetter, 2025).
interest rates
Federal Reserve
trading strategies
currency markets
fixed income
Core PCE inflation
headline inflation
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