Crypto Risk Warning: 70% Drawdown Reality and Retail Tolerance — Trading Takeaways from @bobbyong

According to @bobbyong, most casual investors lack the motivation to learn crypto and cannot tolerate drawdowns as deep as 70%, often blaming the recommender when losses occur, highlighting that only those with sufficient education and risk tolerance should allocate to digital assets; source: @bobbyong on X, Aug 9, 2025. For traders, this underscores the need to size positions and set expectations to withstand severe volatility typical of crypto market cycles rather than relying on social recommendations; source: @bobbyong on X, Aug 9, 2025.
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In the ever-volatile world of cryptocurrency trading, insights from industry experts like Bobby Ong, co-founder of a prominent crypto data platform, often highlight the psychological and practical challenges that deter mainstream adoption. In a recent tweet dated August 9, 2025, Ong shared his personal experience, agreeing with the notion that recommending crypto investments to family and friends is rarely worthwhile. He noted that most people lack the motivation to truly learn about cryptocurrencies, struggle to endure severe drawdowns such as 70% losses, and tend to blame advisors during downturns without expressing gratitude during profitable periods. This sentiment underscores a critical aspect of crypto trading: the high emotional toll and risk tolerance required, which can influence market participation and overall sentiment.
Understanding Crypto Volatility and Trading Risks
Diving deeper into Ong's reference to 70% losses, this figure is not uncommon in the crypto space, where assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have historically experienced massive corrections. For instance, during the 2022 bear market, BTC plummeted from its all-time high of around $69,000 in November 2021 to below $20,000 by June 2022, representing over a 70% decline, according to market data tracked by various exchanges. Such volatility presents both opportunities and pitfalls for traders. From a trading perspective, these drawdowns often create buying opportunities at support levels, but they require robust risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders at key technical thresholds. Traders monitoring BTC/USD pairs on platforms like Binance might note that recent 24-hour trading volumes have hovered around $30 billion, indicating sustained interest despite the risks. Ong's cautionary tale reminds retail traders that without proper education, entering positions in volatile pairs like ETH/USDT could lead to significant emotional and financial strain, potentially exacerbating selling pressure during market dips.
Market Sentiment and Institutional vs. Retail Dynamics
Beyond individual experiences, Ong's tweet touches on broader market sentiment, where retail investors often enter the crypto arena during bull runs but exit en masse during corrections, contributing to amplified volatility. This dynamic is evident in on-chain metrics, such as the surge in Bitcoin transaction volumes during the 2021 bull market, which peaked at over 300,000 daily transactions, only to drop sharply amid the subsequent crash, as reported in blockchain analytics. For traders, this highlights the importance of sentiment indicators like the Fear and Greed Index, which recently oscillated between 'fear' and 'neutral' levels, signaling potential entry points for contrarian strategies. In contrast, institutional flows have provided some stability; for example, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows exceeding $1 billion in a single week in early 2024, according to financial reports from asset managers. Traders could leverage this by focusing on correlated assets, such as SOL/USD, where 24-hour price changes have shown resilience amid positive institutional news, offering scalping opportunities with tight spreads.
From a cross-market viewpoint, crypto's volatility often correlates with stock market movements, particularly in tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, where AI-driven companies influence sentiment. As an AI analyst, I observe that news impacting AI stocks, such as advancements in machine learning, can spill over to AI-related tokens like FET or AGIX, potentially boosting trading volumes. For instance, if a major AI breakthrough announcement drives Nasdaq gains, traders might see a corresponding uptick in ETH trading pairs, given Ethereum's role in decentralized AI applications. However, Ong's advice warns against casually involving novices, as unprepared participants could amplify panic selling, pushing prices below key resistance levels like BTC's $60,000 mark. To capitalize on these correlations, experienced traders might employ hedging strategies, pairing long crypto positions with short stock futures during uncertain periods.
Trading Strategies Amid Emotional Challenges
Building on Ong's insights, effective crypto trading demands discipline to navigate the emotional highs and lows. Consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into BTC during dips, which mitigates the impact of 70% losses by spreading investments over time. Historical data shows that DCA strategies applied from the 2018 bear market lows yielded over 500% returns by 2021 peaks. Additionally, monitoring trading volumes across multiple pairs, such as BTC/EUR or ETH/BTC, provides insights into global sentiment shifts. With current market caps for BTC exceeding $1 trillion, traders should watch for breakout patterns above moving averages, like the 50-day SMA, to identify bullish reversals. Ultimately, Ong's tweet serves as a reminder that while crypto offers lucrative opportunities—evidenced by ETH's 20% gains in certain 7-day periods this year—success hinges on education and resilience, discouraging impulsive recommendations that could lead to blame during inevitable downturns.
In summary, as crypto markets evolve, blending personal anecdotes like Ong's with data-driven analysis empowers traders to make informed decisions. By focusing on verifiable metrics and avoiding emotional pitfalls, one can uncover trading edges in this dynamic landscape.
Bobby Ong
@bobbyongCo-founder & COO @coingecko and @geckoterminal. Bootstrapping in the crypto space since 2013.