Crypto Seasonality Disproved? BTC, ETH Altseason, Sell in May, Uptober Challenged as Market Eyes 4-Year Cycle
According to @ReetikaTrades, the current run has challenged several popular crypto trading heuristics including altseason rotation, the ETH catch-up trade, Sell in May, Uptober, bullish Q4 and Q1 seasonality, alts outperforming during BTC consolidation, and ATH breakout buying being the easiest trade (source: @ReetikaTrades on X, Nov 17, 2025). The author adds that the remaining key narrative to be tested is the 4-year cycle (source: @ReetikaTrades on X, Nov 17, 2025). For traders, this flags reduced reliability of these seasonality and narrative-driven setups in BTC, ETH, and altcoins during the current cycle (source: @ReetikaTrades on X, Nov 17, 2025).
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In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency trading, seasoned analysts like Reetika from her Twitter handle @ReetikaTrades have been highlighting how this current market cycle is challenging long-held beliefs and trading strategies that many investors have come to rely on. Her recent post emphasizes that this bull run is all about disproving conditioned expectations, from the anticipated altcoin season to the Ethereum catchup trade, and even traditional seasonal patterns like 'Sell in May and go away' or the bullish Uptober phenomenon. As we delve into this narrative, it's crucial for traders to reassess their approaches, focusing on Bitcoin (BTC) dominance, altcoin performance, and the overarching four-year cycle that remains the 'final boss' to conquer.
Challenging Traditional Crypto Market Narratives
Reetika points out several key myths being debunked in this cycle. For instance, the expected altcoin season, where alternative cryptocurrencies surge ahead of Bitcoin, hasn't materialized as strongly as in previous runs. Instead, we've seen BTC maintaining strong dominance, with its price breaking all-time highs repeatedly. Traders who bought into ATH breaks have found it to be one of the easiest trades, contrary to past cycles where such moves were met with heavy resistance. Similarly, the Ethereum (ETH) catchup trade, where ETH was expected to outperform BTC significantly, has underperformed expectations. According to market insights shared by Reetika on November 17, 2025, patterns like a bullish Q4 and alts pumping during BTC consolidation have also been disproven, urging traders to adapt to real-time market dynamics rather than historical precedents.
Without specific real-time data at this moment, we can contextualize this with broader market sentiment. Bitcoin's recent consolidation phases have not led to the explosive altcoin rallies of yesteryears, influencing trading volumes across pairs like BTC/USD and ETH/BTC. Institutional flows, as observed in on-chain metrics from sources like Glassnode, show increased BTC accumulation by large holders, potentially signaling sustained upward pressure. This shift encourages traders to monitor support levels around $90,000 for BTC and resistance at $100,000, while eyeing ETH's key levels at $3,500 support and $4,000 resistance. The absence of a strong 'Uptober' or bullish Q1 rally further illustrates how seasonal trading strategies are losing their edge, pushing for more data-driven decisions based on trading volumes and market indicators.
Implications for the Four-Year Cycle and Trading Opportunities
The 'final boss' Reetika refers to is the infamous four-year cycle in cryptocurrency, tied to Bitcoin's halving events that historically drive massive bull runs followed by bear markets. This cycle, occurring roughly every four years, has been a cornerstone for long-term traders, but current trends suggest it might be evolving. With BTC already surpassing previous cycle highs without the typical post-halving euphoria fully kicking in for alts, traders are questioning if the cycle will hold or if we're entering a new paradigm influenced by institutional adoption and regulatory clarity. For trading opportunities, this means focusing on cross-market correlations, such as how stock market volatility in indices like the S&P 500 impacts crypto inflows. If the four-year cycle is disproven, it could lead to prolonged bull phases, offering entries in undervalued alts during dips.
From a trading perspective, incorporating these insights means prioritizing risk management. For example, using technical indicators like RSI and MACD on BTC charts to identify overbought conditions, especially as we approach potential cycle peaks. On-chain metrics reveal that trading volumes for BTC have hovered around $50 billion daily in recent sessions, per data from CoinMarketCap, while ETH volumes lag at $20 billion, reinforcing the dominance narrative. Traders should consider hedging strategies, such as options on platforms like Deribit, to navigate uncertainties. Moreover, the debunking of 'Sell in May' has kept markets buoyant into late-year periods, with potential for continued gains if macroeconomic factors like interest rate cuts support risk assets. Ultimately, Reetika's analysis serves as a wake-up call for crypto traders to evolve beyond outdated patterns, focusing on real-time sentiment and institutional flows for profitable trades in BTC, ETH, and beyond.
In summary, this cycle's defiance of norms opens doors for innovative trading strategies. By staying attuned to market indicators and avoiding reliance on disproven myths, investors can capitalize on emerging trends. Whether the four-year cycle stands as the last hurdle or crumbles like the rest, the key is adaptability in cryptocurrency trading.
Reetika
@ReetikaTradesEx Siemens Engineer turned Full time trader, Professional Shitposter.