According to @garyblack00, a TSLA and SpaceX merger makes little sense for Tesla shareholders without major cost or revenue synergies due to heavy dilution and valuation differences (source: @garyblack00). He calculates that with Tesla at a $1.5T market cap on a 200x P/E and SpaceX at $800B on a 400x P/E, the combined value would be $2.3T, requiring Tesla to issue roughly 35% new shares and producing about $8B in adjusted net income ($6B Tesla, $2B SpaceX) (source: @garyblack00). He adds that many institutional holders could balk if around 25% of profits come from space travel and communications and might sell, while the industrial logic is weak and Tesla could end up funding SpaceX’s negative cash flows (source: @garyblack00). He also notes Tesla has underperformed the Nasdaq over one- and five-year periods, reinforcing his caution on such a deal (source: @garyblack00).