According to @KobeissiLetter, the average U.S. government shutdown lasts about 8 days, framing a relatively short event window for risk management and positioning (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025). According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 finished higher one year after a shutdown in 86% of cases with an average gain of about 13%, underscoring historically favorable 12‑month equity returns after resolution (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025). According to @KobeissiLetter, during the 35‑day 2018 shutdown, the S&P 500 rallied roughly 11%, highlighting the potential for a risk‑on tape even amid prolonged closures (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025). According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. defers about $400 million per day in costs during a shutdown and the Fed generally turns more dovish if government data releases are paused, shaping rate‑path expectations and liquidity conditions (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025). Stock‑crypto correlation has risen since 2020, so if equities firm on a shutdown‑related dovish shift, BTC and ETH often echo risk‑on moves, which traders can incorporate into cross‑asset strategies (source: IMF, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 11, 2022). According to @KobeissiLetter, monitoring the shutdown timeline and the restart of economic data is key for timing potential shifts in Fed expectations that can ripple through SPX, yields, DXY, VIX, and crypto beta (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025).

According to @MilkRoadDaily, the Federal Reserve has cut rates and AI models characterize the policy stance as the most dovish since 2021 (source: @MilkRoadDaily). According to @MilkRoadDaily, leadership within crypto is concentrated in staking, AI tokens, NFTs, smart contracts, and meme coins, signaling a broad risk-on tone that could extend into Q4 (source: @MilkRoadDaily). Based on @MilkRoadDaily's assessment, traders can track momentum in those highlighted sectors and use BTC and ETH as liquidity and trend benchmarks when planning Q4 positioning (source: @MilkRoadDaily).