According to @DowdEdward, TLT has based for over 18 months after a 55% drawdown, with weekly volume running 40–60% above the 2015–2019 average, indicating institutional accumulation at depressed prices (source: @DowdEdward citing Common Sense Investor). According to @DowdEdward, price is holding above the 2023 lows near 85–87, weekly RSI has normalized to 40–45, and downside momentum has stalled while volatility compresses, supporting a constructive technical base for a US Treasury duration trade (source: @DowdEdward). According to @DowdEdward, on the macro side long yields have stopped making higher highs, and historically TLT tends to rally 30–50% after 10Y yields peak, framing a duration-friendly backdrop (source: @DowdEdward). According to @DowdEdward, upside targets are outlined at 115–120 for the base case, 130–140 for the bull case, and 140+ in a risk-off scenario, with the setup characterized by heavy volume, accumulation, and flat price action (source: @DowdEdward).