According to Edward Dowd, the manufacturing PMI has returned to contraction territory at 49 after a short-term increase attributed to a 'Trump confidence bump'. Historically a reliable indicator for GDP and employment, this correlation has faltered in 2023 and 2024.

According to Edward Dowd, the short-term bump in Manufacturing PMI, which was likely influenced by a Trump-induced confidence boost, has ended, dropping back to 49. Historically, Manufacturing PMI has been a reliable leading indicator of GDP and employment trends. However, this correlation has failed to hold since 2023, affecting economic forecasts and trading strategies. Source: Edward Dowd's Twitter.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg News has reported a significant increase in the number of stories about job cuts, firings, and layoffs, reaching 15,651 last week, the highest in over a year. This spike in reporting coincides with DOGE's announcement of massive layoffs, potentially impacting market sentiment and trading strategies related to employment-sensitive sectors.

According to Eric Balchunas, Apple plans to add 20,000 jobs in the U.S., which could significantly impact the tech sector's employment landscape and potentially influence related stock market activities.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the current employment of 2.7 million individuals by the US federal government raises questions about its economic implications. The report highlights the potential influence on government expenditure and fiscal policy, noting that a workforce of this size could impact budget allocations and economic stability. Monitoring these trends is essential for traders as shifts in government employment may affect market dynamics and investor strategies (source: The Kobeissi Letter).