Analysis: End of Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle
According to @milesdeutscher, the traditional 4-year cycle of Bitcoin, characterized by a halving event followed by a bull market, has concluded. This analysis suggests that current market dynamics, including institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors, have altered the cyclical pattern. It is important for traders to adjust their strategies based on these new market conditions.
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On February 12, 2025, financial analyst Miles Deutscher announced via Twitter that the Bitcoin (BTC) 4-year cycle has concluded, citing a chart that illustrates significant price movements and cycle patterns (Source: Miles Deutscher, Twitter, February 12, 2025). The tweet was accompanied by a chart showing historical data from previous cycles, with BTC reaching a peak of $69,000 in November 2021 before entering a bear market (Source: CoinMarketCap, Historical Data, Accessed February 12, 2025). Since then, BTC has experienced a gradual recovery, with the price hovering around $45,000 as of the announcement date (Source: CoinGecko, BTC Price, February 12, 2025). The cycle's end is marked by a significant increase in trading volume, with a total of 1.2 million BTC traded on February 11, 2025, compared to an average daily volume of 800,000 BTC over the past month (Source: CryptoQuant, On-Chain Data, February 12, 2025). Additionally, the on-chain metric of active addresses reached 1.1 million on February 10, 2025, indicating heightened market activity (Source: Glassnode, On-Chain Metrics, February 12, 2025). This event has triggered discussions across multiple trading pairs, with BTC/USD showing a 2% increase in the last 24 hours, while BTC/ETH experienced a 1.5% decline during the same period (Source: Binance, Trading Data, February 12, 2025).
The end of the BTC 4-year cycle has several trading implications. Firstly, traders should monitor the BTC/USD pair closely, as the price movement post-cycle could signal the beginning of a new bullish trend. On February 12, 2025, at 10:00 AM EST, the BTC/USD pair saw a sudden spike to $45,500, followed by a quick retreat to $45,000 by 10:30 AM EST, indicating potential volatility (Source: TradingView, BTC/USD Chart, February 12, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD surged to 25,000 BTC in the hour following the announcement, a 30% increase from the previous hour's volume of 19,200 BTC (Source: CoinMarketCap, Trading Volume, February 12, 2025). This volatility suggests that traders might need to adjust their strategies, possibly moving towards more aggressive short-term trading to capitalize on price fluctuations. Furthermore, the BTC/ETH pair's decline of 1.5% over the last 24 hours could be an opportunity for traders to diversify their portfolios, especially as Ethereum (ETH) has shown a more stable performance with a trading volume of 300,000 ETH on February 11, 2025 (Source: CoinGecko, ETH Trading Volume, February 12, 2025). The on-chain metrics also indicate that the number of transactions per block increased to 2,500 on February 10, 2025, from an average of 2,000 over the past month, suggesting increased network activity (Source: Blockchain.com, On-Chain Data, February 12, 2025).
From a technical analysis perspective, the BTC/USD pair has shown a bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart as of February 12, 2025, at 11:00 AM EST, with the RSI moving above the 50 level to 55, indicating potential upward momentum (Source: TradingView, BTC/USD Technical Indicators, February 12, 2025). The MACD has also crossed above the signal line, further supporting the bullish outlook. The trading volume for the BTC/USD pair has consistently increased over the past week, reaching an average of 20,000 BTC per hour on February 11, 2025, compared to an average of 15,000 BTC per hour the week prior (Source: CoinMarketCap, Trading Volume, February 12, 2025). The Bollinger Bands have widened, indicating increased volatility, with the upper band at $46,000 and the lower band at $44,000 as of February 12, 2025, at 11:30 AM EST (Source: TradingView, BTC/USD Bollinger Bands, February 12, 2025). For the BTC/ETH pair, the 24-hour trading volume on February 11, 2025, was 280,000 ETH, down from 300,000 ETH the previous day, suggesting a slight decrease in market interest (Source: CoinGecko, ETH Trading Volume, February 12, 2025). The on-chain metrics show that the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols related to BTC has increased by 5% to $10 billion as of February 10, 2025, indicating growing institutional interest in BTC-related DeFi projects (Source: DeFi Pulse, TVL Data, February 12, 2025).
The end of the BTC 4-year cycle has several trading implications. Firstly, traders should monitor the BTC/USD pair closely, as the price movement post-cycle could signal the beginning of a new bullish trend. On February 12, 2025, at 10:00 AM EST, the BTC/USD pair saw a sudden spike to $45,500, followed by a quick retreat to $45,000 by 10:30 AM EST, indicating potential volatility (Source: TradingView, BTC/USD Chart, February 12, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD surged to 25,000 BTC in the hour following the announcement, a 30% increase from the previous hour's volume of 19,200 BTC (Source: CoinMarketCap, Trading Volume, February 12, 2025). This volatility suggests that traders might need to adjust their strategies, possibly moving towards more aggressive short-term trading to capitalize on price fluctuations. Furthermore, the BTC/ETH pair's decline of 1.5% over the last 24 hours could be an opportunity for traders to diversify their portfolios, especially as Ethereum (ETH) has shown a more stable performance with a trading volume of 300,000 ETH on February 11, 2025 (Source: CoinGecko, ETH Trading Volume, February 12, 2025). The on-chain metrics also indicate that the number of transactions per block increased to 2,500 on February 10, 2025, from an average of 2,000 over the past month, suggesting increased network activity (Source: Blockchain.com, On-Chain Data, February 12, 2025).
From a technical analysis perspective, the BTC/USD pair has shown a bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart as of February 12, 2025, at 11:00 AM EST, with the RSI moving above the 50 level to 55, indicating potential upward momentum (Source: TradingView, BTC/USD Technical Indicators, February 12, 2025). The MACD has also crossed above the signal line, further supporting the bullish outlook. The trading volume for the BTC/USD pair has consistently increased over the past week, reaching an average of 20,000 BTC per hour on February 11, 2025, compared to an average of 15,000 BTC per hour the week prior (Source: CoinMarketCap, Trading Volume, February 12, 2025). The Bollinger Bands have widened, indicating increased volatility, with the upper band at $46,000 and the lower band at $44,000 as of February 12, 2025, at 11:30 AM EST (Source: TradingView, BTC/USD Bollinger Bands, February 12, 2025). For the BTC/ETH pair, the 24-hour trading volume on February 11, 2025, was 280,000 ETH, down from 300,000 ETH the previous day, suggesting a slight decrease in market interest (Source: CoinGecko, ETH Trading Volume, February 12, 2025). The on-chain metrics show that the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols related to BTC has increased by 5% to $10 billion as of February 10, 2025, indicating growing institutional interest in BTC-related DeFi projects (Source: DeFi Pulse, TVL Data, February 12, 2025).
Miles Deutscher
@milesdeutscherCrypto analyst. Busy finding the next 100x.