ETH vs BTC: Analyst @CryptoMichNL Cites Flat ETH/BTC at Key Support; BTC Two-Week 25% Drop Highlights Rotation Potential
According to @CryptoMichNL, the ETH/BTC pair has been flat in recent weeks, showing Ethereum has not underperformed Bitcoin despite recent stress, which is atypical for a bear-phase correlation. Source: @CryptoMichNL (X, Nov 23, 2025) He notes that in a standard bear market, a 25% two-week decline in BTC would typically see higher-beta ETH fall 40–45%, which did not occur, implying the drawdown pressure has been BTC-specific. Source: @CryptoMichNL (X, Nov 23, 2025) He is monitoring a crucial support on the ETH/BTC ratio; if it holds and ETH outperforms on the next bounce, it would signal rotation and indicate the cycle is not over. Source: @CryptoMichNL (X, Nov 23, 2025) For traders, the focus is on ETH/BTC relative strength as confirmation; a sustained hold and breakout would favor ETH over BTC on rebounds, while a loss of the cited support would negate the rotation signal. Source: @CryptoMichNL (X, Nov 23, 2025)
SourceAnalysis
In the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency trading, keeping a close eye on the ETH/BTC pair is crucial for traders seeking to capitalize on market shifts. According to Michaël van de Poppe, a prominent crypto analyst, the recent performance of Ethereum against Bitcoin presents an intriguing scenario that deviates from typical bear market behavior. Over the past few weeks, Ethereum has essentially flatlined when compared to Bitcoin, showing minimal movement despite broader market pressures. This stability is noteworthy because, in a standard bearish environment, higher-beta assets like Ethereum would typically amplify Bitcoin's declines. For instance, if Bitcoin experiences a 25% drop over two weeks, Ethereum might be expected to plummet by 40-45%, reflecting its increased volatility and risk profile. However, this hasn't occurred, suggesting that specific factors are disproportionately weighing on Bitcoin alone, rather than the entire crypto ecosystem.
Analyzing the ETH/BTC Chart for Trading Opportunities
Delving deeper into this analysis, the ETH/BTC chart is one to monitor closely for potential breakout signals. The key here is whether Ethereum can hold a crucial support level and begin to rally upwards, potentially outperforming Bitcoin during any market bounce. This could indicate that the current market cycle is far from over, offering bullish trading opportunities for those positioned in Ethereum. Traders should watch for volume spikes in the ETH/BTC pair, as increased trading activity could confirm a reversal. Without real-time data at this moment, historical patterns show that when Ethereum maintains stability amid Bitcoin's weakness, it often precedes periods of outperformance. For example, support levels around 0.05 BTC per ETH have historically acted as springboards for rallies, and breaking above resistance at 0.06 BTC could signal a stronger upward trend. Incorporating on-chain metrics, such as Ethereum's transaction volumes and gas fees, can provide additional confirmation, as rising network activity often correlates with price strength against Bitcoin.
Market Sentiment and Broader Implications for Crypto Traders
From a broader market sentiment perspective, this divergence between Ethereum and Bitcoin highlights underlying strengths in the Ethereum ecosystem, possibly driven by developments in decentralized finance (DeFi) or upcoming upgrades. Traders looking for cross-market opportunities might consider pairing this analysis with stock market correlations, where tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq often move in tandem with crypto assets. If Ethereum begins to outperform, it could attract institutional flows, boosting trading volumes across major pairs like ETH/USDT and ETH/BTC on exchanges. Risk management is essential here; setting stop-loss orders below key support levels can protect against sudden downturns. Moreover, monitoring Bitcoin's dominance index is vital—if it starts declining while Ethereum holds steady, it reinforces the thesis of an extended cycle. This setup presents trading strategies such as longing ETH/BTC if it holds support, aiming for targets at previous highs, or using options to hedge against volatility.
To optimize trading decisions, consider the implications for portfolio allocation. In a scenario where Ethereum rallies against Bitcoin, altcoin seasons often follow, providing amplified returns for diversified crypto portfolios. Historical data from past cycles, such as the 2021 bull run, shows Ethereum leading recoveries with gains exceeding 50% against Bitcoin in short periods. Traders should also factor in external influences like regulatory news or macroeconomic indicators, which could either accelerate or hinder this outperformance. Ultimately, this chart analysis underscores the importance of relative strength in crypto trading, encouraging a proactive approach to spotting early signs of market reversals. By focusing on these dynamics, traders can position themselves for potential profits while navigating the inherent risks of the cryptocurrency markets.
Expanding on the trading-focused insights, let's explore potential entry and exit points based on this narrative. Suppose the ETH/BTC pair approaches a critical level around 0.045 BTC—holding this could trigger buying interest, with initial targets at 0.055 BTC for a 20% gain. Volume analysis is key; a surge above average daily volumes, say exceeding 500,000 ETH in 24-hour trades, would validate bullish momentum. On-chain data, including active addresses and whale movements, further supports this view, as increased Ethereum network usage often precedes price appreciation. For those trading perpetual futures, leveraging positions with tight risk controls can amplify returns, but always prioritize capital preservation. In correlation with stock markets, if AI-driven tech stocks rally, it could spill over to AI-related tokens on Ethereum, enhancing overall sentiment. This interconnectedness offers cross-asset trading opportunities, such as pairing Ethereum longs with Bitcoin shorts for relative value plays. Remember, while this analysis points to optimism, market conditions can change rapidly, so continuous monitoring and adaptation are essential for successful trading outcomes.
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNLMacro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast