Ether Navigates Volatility as Bullish On-Chain Signals Clash with Price Pullback

Ether (ETH) experienced a turbulent trading session, surging on positive macroeconomic news before retracing gains amid late-session selling pressure. The digital asset rallied to an intraday high of $2,873.46 on Wednesday following favorable U.S. inflation data and renewed hopes for a U.S.–China trade agreement. The momentum began late Tuesday evening, around 8 p.m. ET, when reports emerged of a draft trade framework. This was amplified when former U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social at 8:04 a.m. ET on Wednesday, stating that a deal was effectively complete. The initial risk-on sentiment pushed ETH toward $2,780 on growing spot volume.

The primary catalyst for the sharp ascent arrived at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, when the U.S. Labor Department released its May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Both headline and core CPI rose by only 0.1% month-over-month, below the 0.2% consensus forecast. This cooler-than-expected inflation print bolstered expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut later in the year, weakening the U.S. dollar and propelling risk assets higher. In response, Ether vaulted from the upper $2,780s to its peak of $2,873.46. Trading analysis indicates this move was validated by significant volume, with the CPI-triggered candle accounting for approximately 527,000 ETH, valued at around $1.47 billion, marking the day's largest volume bar.

Underlying Strength: ETF Inflows and Exchange Outflows Signal Conviction

Despite the subsequent price correction, underlying market dynamics paint a powerfully bullish picture for ETH. A significant indicator of this strength is the massive withdrawal of ETH from centralized exchanges. On June 11, analytics firm Sentora reported that over 140,000 ETH, worth approximately $393 million at the time, was moved out of exchange wallets. This represents the largest single-day net outflow in over a month and suggests a strong holder conviction, as investors are moving assets into self-custody for long-term holding rather than keeping them ready for sale. This trend coincided with sustained institutional appetite, as ETH-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded another $240.3 million in net inflows, notably surpassing the daily total for Bitcoin ETFs and extending a 16-day positive inflow streak.

Further reinforcing this bullish sentiment are structural and derivatives market indicators. The amount of staked ETH has climbed to an all-time high of 34.65 million tokens, locking up nearly 28.7% of the total supply and reducing the available liquid supply. Futures open interest also printed a fresh high above $21.7 billion, underscoring increasing institutional engagement. In the options market, data from Glassnode shows the one-week options skew flipped sharply negative, dropping from –2.4% to –7.0% in just 48 hours. This indicates a rising demand for short-dated call options, signaling that traders are betting on imminent upside. Analyst Anthony Sassano highlighted this accelerating trend, arguing that Ethereum remains structurally undervalued given the persistent capital inflows.

ETH Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch

From a technical standpoint, ETH's price action has been volatile but is forming a constructive pattern. After failing to sustain its rally above $2,870, selling pressure intensified during the U.S. afternoon session on June 11 and continued into the early Asian session on June 12. A sharp 1.29% dip from $2,772 to $2,736 occurred on heavy volume before the price stabilized around $2,758. This price action has established a new critical support band between $2,750 and $2,760. The series of higher lows since June 9, culminating in the higher high at $2,873, confirms an accelerating upward channel. For the bullish trend to continue, traders are now watching for a decisive close above the immediate resistance at $2,900. A successful break of this level would open the door for a test of the psychologically important $3,000 mark, with a further hurdle anticipated near $3,120. Conversely, a failure to hold the $2,750 support could signal short-term weakness and a potential deeper pullback.