Ethereum (ETH) is presenting a complex and divergent picture for traders, as significant on-chain accumulation by large holders clashes with short-term price weakness and nascent outflows from institutional investment vehicles. While the price of ETH has struggled, recently seeing a sharp rejection near the $2,673 level and testing support around $2,500, the activity of the market's largest players suggests a powerfully bullish long-term conviction. The ETH/USDT pair is currently trading around $2,793, marking a significant 6% recovery in the last 24 hours, but the underlying battle between different market cohorts continues to define the landscape.

The price action on June 16 was particularly telling, with ETH experiencing a 5.7% drop from a high of $2,679.99 down to $2,527.37. A wave of selling pressure intensified during the 22:00 hour, solidifying resistance near $2,650 and pushing the asset below key support zones. However, despite this bearish price action, the narrative shifts dramatically when examining on-chain metrics. According to on-chain analyst lookonchain, data from analytics firm Santiment reveals a staggering trend: wallets holding between 1,000 and 100,000 ETH—often categorized as 'sharks' and 'whales'—have collectively added 1.49 million ETH to their holdings in the last 30 days. This buying spree increased their total share of the supply to 26.98% and stands in stark contrast to smaller retail wallets, which have been observed taking profits during the recent downturn.

Whale Accumulation Reaches Historic Proportions

The scale of this accumulation is not just significant; it is historic. Further analysis from Glassnode corroborates this trend, noting that the daily net accumulation by whale-sized wallets has surpassed 800,000 ETH for nearly a full week. One of the most dramatic single-day events occurred on June 12, when these large wallets added over 871,000 ETH, the largest net inflow recorded in 2024. Glassnode analysts have stated that this level of sustained buying from large entities has not been witnessed since the bull market of 2017, underscoring the profound conviction these investors have at current price levels. This aggressive accumulation while prices dip suggests a strategic positioning, possibly in anticipation of future catalysts or simply viewing the current range as a deep value zone.

Conflicting Signals: ETF Flows and Technical Resistance

However, the bullish on-chain picture is tempered by data from the traditional finance sector. After a record 19-day streak of positive inflows, U.S.-listed spot Ethereum ETFs recorded their first day of net outflows on Friday, with $2.2 million exiting the products, according to data from Farside Investors. While the amount is minor, it marks a potential shift in the initial wave of institutional demand through these regulated vehicles. This creates a fascinating divergence: on-chain whales are buying ETH directly at a historic pace, while ETF investors have momentarily paused their buying spree. From a technical standpoint, ETH faces immediate resistance around the $2,650 to $2,700 area. The recent 24-hour high for ETH/USDT was $2,797.76, indicating that buyers are pushing to reclaim higher ground. The ETH/BTC pair, trading at 0.0251, is up nearly 4%, suggesting ETH is currently showing relative strength against Bitcoin. Critical support remains at the psychological and technical level of $2,500. A sustained hold above this level, fueled by continued whale buying, could provide the foundation for a move to re-test resistance. Conversely, a failure to hold $2,500 could see a re-evaluation of the bullish thesis, despite the powerful on-chain signals.

In conclusion, traders are navigating a market with deeply conflicting signals. The conviction of ETH whales, who are accumulating at a rate unseen in years, provides a strong bullish undercurrent. Yet, recent price weakness, coupled with the first signs of cooling ETF demand, calls for caution. The key level to watch is the $2,500 support zone. As long as this floor holds, the argument for a reversal led by large-scale buyers remains strong. The performance of the ETH/BTC ratio will also be a crucial indicator of relative market strength. Traders should closely monitor on-chain flow data and ETF reports to gauge whether the institutional pause is temporary or the beginning of a new trend.